[NSR] Corona Virus.
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Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:10 am quote
kshansen wrote:
Harbinger wrote:
Iíve said this before here and will say it again. Statistics can VERY easily be manipulated to suit ones needs. The ďinsert condition hereĒ kills more than Covid-19 one is probably one of the more common ones now. Comparing an infectious disease to anything other than another infectious disease is an apples to oranges argument.

This is one of my favourite examples of how stats can be misleading.

http://www.geom.uiuc.edu/~lori/mathed/problems/sloanA307.html
I'll make a guess at the reason "injuries" went up. Might it be because someone killed would not be counted as being"injured"?
Yep.
Ossessionato
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:28 am quote
Does one thing cancel the other?
Molto Verboso
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:53 am quote
Attila wrote:
Does one thing cancel the other?
Well in at least some cases one does. Injured would mean you had bodily damage but survived. Dead means you did not survive.

Maybe if you think of it in scooter terms it would help.

If your rear tire goes soft you would count that as a leak, if the tire splits down the center and half it is in the ditch you don't have a leak you had a blow-out!

Most would not count a blow-out as a leak despite the fact that the blow-out may have been caused because you didn't check you tire pressure often enough and that caused the tire to overheat and fail.
Ossessionato
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:31 am quote
Fudmucker wrote:
northernerbill wrote:
Fudmucker wrote:
My wife just got a message not to come in to school Monday or Tuesday.
The head teacher is in quarantine from a positive contact and now the whole school must be sanitized...

This protocol is not viable every time a single person tests positive.
Viable? There is no choice, no other option. Schools, businesses, shops.
Closing, quarantine and sanitizer is the only option
I disagree completely.

The school has been closed until Monday next week. Just in case any virus was passed by the Head Teacher, the entire school buildings and passages must be sanitized. The cost of this operation exceeds the average monthly salary of a teacher. Should another staff member or learner test positive, the protocol calls for the operation to be repeated yet again.

Imagine a factory employing 100 people. Every time a worker tests positive (whether they were infected in the workplace, in transit, at home, visiting the supermarket etc) by your logic the factory must be closed and sanitized...? You may as well shut down the factory, retrench all the workers and cease business for a year or two until the virus is no longer around.

The world has completely lost economic perspective because of this hysteria over a particularly problematic virus that is killing less people than diabetes or ischemic heart disease.
just picking up on Fudmuckers post..

These are UK figures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52663523
Quote:
It's still very early in the crisis, so it's impossible to tell how big the final bill will be. It could be as much as £298bn just for this financial year (April 2020 to April 2021)
If it is £298bn in order to save 500,000 people (the figure our scientists predicted would die if we didn't lockdown), then the cost per person saved is nearly £600k

Add to this cost per person the number of jobs lost, firms bust etc, and it makes me wonder was it worth it?

How much do our NHS consider a viable amount to spend on a cancer patient for instance?

If we get to March next year and Covid 20 is doing the rounds, who would push the button on another lockdown and spend another £298bn
Ossessionato
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:52 am quote
... don't make me think, this Covid is enough for me ...
Thunder Thief
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:13 am quote
It seems a bit in bad taste to equate lives do a monitary amount. When it is your loved one dying, the sky would be the limit as to how much you then would value them monitarily so let's not go down that road. In the states, given we pay for our insurance and any cost incurred if we are not covered or covered enough, lives here can very well be equated to a monetary value which is so wrong. My father right now is in hospice care due to a lack of healthcare and will be dying from stage 4 cancer. He did not have insurance until he hit 65 years old and was able to go on Medicare (government-supplied ins.) He went into the doctor to get his routine checks and then and only then did he know he had stage 4 cancer. There isn't enough money I could ever give in a lifetime to keep him here with me longer. I think many in the states do not seek healthcare due to cost which is pretty sad, cutting it down to not being able to afford to live.

I feel like if the majority of our society wore masks and abided by the rules set in place to protect others, we wouldn't be in a situation with a virus running rampant like a wildfire. The way things are going here in the states, with the individualism ideals going on (won't happen to me, not that big of a deal, etc etc) a second shutdown is almost guaranteed. Claiming infringement of freedom to be minorly inconvenienced by wearing a mask is idiotic and selfish. I could claim the same thing about wearing clothes, about how it infringes my freedom to do what I want, except there are laws for that, oh and those laws aren't there for me, they are for people other than self. No one is asking people to abide by these covid restrictions and rules for a lifetime, but just until this thing is under control of a vaccine is distributed. Part of being in a society is the concern with the group as a whole, caring and protecting the ones that can not care or protect themselves.

Went off on a tangent or two but it is immoral to value lives in a monetary amount. Here it is the poor, elderly, and uninsured who will be hit the most, many directly affected by lack of funds. Sounds dystopian to me where only the rich or well to do get to live the rest can go die quietly out of sight.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:40 am quote
froggieposition wrote:
I feel like if the majority of our society wore masks and abided by the rules set in place to protect others, we wouldn't be in a situation with a virus running rampant like a wildfire. The way things are going here in the states, with the individualism ideals going on (won't happen to me, not that big of a deal, etc etc) a second shutdown is almost guaranteed. Claiming infringement of freedom to be minorly inconvenienced by wearing a mask is idiotic and selfish. I could claim the same thing about wearing clothes, about how it infringes my freedom to do what I want, except there are laws for that, oh and those laws aren't there for me, they are for people other than self. No one is asking people to abide by these covid restrictions and rules for a lifetime, but just until this thing is under control of a vaccine is distributed. Part of being in a society is the concern with the group as a whole, caring and protecting the ones that can not care or protect themselves.
Well said!
Ossessionato
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:45 am quote
froggieposition wrote:
it is immoral to value lives in a monetary amount
I agree, but the figure I quoted is equal to approx 2.5 times the annual budget of the entire UK National Health Service, and the entire NHS will suffer as a consequence.
Thunder Thief
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:07 am quote
fleece wrote:
froggieposition wrote:
it is immoral to value lives in a monetary amount
I agree, but the figure I quoted is equal to approx 2.5 times the annual budget of the entire UK National Health Service, and the entire NHS will suffer as a consequence.
I don't think there is any aspect that is NOT suffering. That is inevitable with this pandemic. I think everyone should be concerned first and foremost with putting out the proverbial fire. Once the fire is under control, we then can evaluate monitary damage and where to go from that moment. Right now everything is on fire and many are pretending like there is no fire.

05onfire1_xp-articleLarge-v2.jpg

Molto Verboso
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:26 am quote
froggieposition wrote:
I feel like if the majority of our society wore masks and abided by the rules set in place to protect others, we wouldn't be in a situation with a virus running rampant like a wildfire. The way things are going here in the states, with the individualism ideals going on (won't happen to me, not that big of a deal, etc etc) a second shutdown is almost guaranteed. Claiming infringement of freedom to be minorly inconvenienced by wearing a mask is idiotic and selfish. I could claim the same thing about wearing clothes, about how it infringes my freedom to do what I want, except there are laws for that, oh and those laws aren't there for me, they are for people other than self. No one is asking people to abide by these covid restrictions and rules for a lifetime, but just until this thing is under control of a vaccine is distributed. Part of being in a society is the concern with the group as a whole, caring and protecting the ones that can not care or protect themselves.
Wife just got into it with a "lady" at the grocery store today where I believe there are at least strong recommendations to wear face coverings.

The "lady" got all defensive when wife said something about the lack of mask. This person replied that it was ok as she had recently been tested.

OKAY so now that it takes at the least a few days to get the results of a test, at least the ones wife and I had. Did she quarantine herself from the minute she was swabbed so she knew 100% that she had not been infected ten minutes after the test was done?

Maybe I don't know or understand everything about the testing process but I know if say I breath into a breathalyzer and show 0.0% alcohol and five minutes later chug down a fifth of Jack Daniels I very likely am not sober anymore! No matter what the recent test may show!

And to top it off the disclaimer that was attached to the results we were given basically said the test proved nothing only that the test did not find anything. Sort of like having a blind guy check the lights on you car!
Molto Verboso
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:46 pm quote
Fudmucker wrote:
northernerbill wrote:
Fudmucker wrote:
My wife just got a message not to come in to school Monday or Tuesday.
The head teacher is in quarantine from a positive contact and now the whole school must be sanitized...

This protocol is not viable every time a single person tests positive.
Viable? There is no choice, no other option. Schools, businesses, shops.
Closing, quarantine and sanitizer is the only option
I disagree completely.

The school has been closed until Monday next week. Just in case any virus was passed by the Head Teacher, the entire school buildings and passages must be sanitized. The cost of this operation exceeds the average monthly salary of a teacher. Should another staff member or learner test positive, the protocol calls for the operation to be repeated yet again.

Imagine a factory employing 100 people. Every time a worker tests positive (whether they were infected in the workplace, in transit, at home, visiting the supermarket etc) by your logic the factory must be closed and sanitized...? You may as well shut down the factory, retrench all the workers and cease business for a year or two until the virus is no longer around.

The world has completely lost economic perspective because of this hysteria over a particularly problematic virus that is killing less people than diabetes or ischemic heart disease.
By my logic the factory must be closed......YES

And guess what, factories are being closed when someone tests positive.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:55 pm quote
kshansen wrote:
Wife just got into it with a "lady" at the grocery store today where I believe there are at least strong recommendations to wear face coverings.

The "lady" got all defensive when wife said something about the lack of mask. This person replied that it was ok as she had recently been tested.

OKAY so now that it takes at the least a few days to get the results of a test, at least the ones wife and I had. Did she quarantine herself from the minute she was swabbed so she knew 100% that she had not been infected ten minutes after the test was done?

Maybe I don't know or understand everything about the testing process but I know if say I breath into a breathalyzer and show 0.0% alcohol and five minutes later chug down a fifth of Jack Daniels I very likely am not sober anymore! No matter what the recent test may show!

And to top it off the disclaimer that was attached to the results we were given basically said the test proved nothing only that the test did not find anything. Sort of like having a blind guy check the lights on you car!
Yes, wearing of masks has become quite a political issue around here as well. Never mind that most stores post a sign recommending or requiring the wearing of masks. And never mind that a Governor's order requiring the wearing of masks anywhere outside your own residence where you can't maintain a 6 foot social distance goes into effect this week. Some are militantly resisting doing so and obviously are unconcerned that the primary point is the protection of others. You can try simple reminders, but that mostly invites an angry and aggressive response. I am really getting tired of some people.
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:12 pm quote
In the past, government PR initiatives have often referred to the cost of this or that social evil (alcohol, smoking, vehicle accidents, lifestyle choices etc.) in lost jobs and damage to the economy. When it comes to this bug they are conveniently silent as it is not the bug causing the damage, but the preventative measures introduced by government to curb it.

NB, I live in a country with 31% unemployment before the bug. We have 59M people, with just over 30M under the age of 17. Social benefits are being dished out all over to the unemployed and employers are being morally pressured to keep paying workers wages despite being locked down and not doing business at all. There are less than 2M taxpayers contributing 85% of the tax revenue to the state. Business bankruptcy and permanent loss of employment is on the increase to the extent that government is projecting that the unemployment rate will exceed 50% by September.

If one has to close businesses every time a single employee tests positive, the prognosis is permanent closure. If you received zero remuneration or social benefits when your employment is curtailed or terminated, would you still support closure?
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:19 pm quote
Dooglas wrote:
Yes, wearing of masks has become quite a political issue around here as well. Never mind that most stores post a sign recommending or requiring the wearing of masks. And never mind that a Governor's order requiring the wearing of masks anywhere outside your own residence where you can't maintain a 6 foot social distance goes into effect this week. Some are militantly resisting doing so and obviously are unconcerned that the primary point is the protection of others. You can try simple reminders, but that mostly invites an angry and aggressive response. I am really getting tired of some people.
In South Africa,all businesses are required by regulations to deny entry to anyone not wearing a mask - and they do so. This is in addition to limiting the number of persons per square metre of floor area and every business having to read every person's temperature every time they enter and to log the data for inspection.
Molto Verboso
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:36 pm quote
Fudmucker wrote:
In the past, government PR initiatives have often referred to the cost of this or that social evil (alcohol, smoking, vehicle accidents, lifestyle choices etc.) in lost jobs and damage to the economy. When it comes to this bug they are conveniently silent as it is not the bug causing the damage, but the preventative measures introduced by government to curb it.

NB, I live in a country with 31% unemployment before the bug. We have 59M people, with just over 30M under the age of 17. Social benefits are being dished out all over to the unemployed and employers are being morally pressured to keep paying workers wages despite being locked down and not doing business at all. There are less than 2M taxpayers contributing 85% of the tax revenue to the state. Business bankruptcy and permanent loss of employment is on the increase to the extent that government is projecting that the unemployment rate will exceed 50% by September.

If one has to close businesses every time a single employee tests positive, the prognosis is permanent closure. If you received zero remuneration or social benefits when your employment is curtailed or terminated, would you still support closure?
I understand what you are saying, but this is a proper full on pandemic.

You quote other methods of how someone could die. Cancer, accidents, other illnesses etc.
But you donít pass cancer or accidents on by coughing or sneezing or touching or breathing near someone.
The sheer global figures for deaths around the world since this broke out is off the scale, and left unchecked will take most of the planet.
How can you not grasp this? Most countries have only had this a few months and look at the death tolls. The R rate with no actions will be huge. Hence when a localised outbreak happens, things get closed.
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:46 pm quote
northernerbill wrote:
The sheer global figures for deaths around the world since this broke out is off the scale, and left unchecked will take most of the planet.
if that were the case, i would agree with you, thankfully I think you're wrong.
Ossessionato
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Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:18 pm quote
... I don't know ... I should feel lucky (relatively) to have a public health service free and free for everyone, I would have died many years ago if it had not been so; sure ... it's expensive to maintain it but we voluntarily tax ourselves, an added fee is paid through vehicle insurance (all) and if it weren't for some waste it would be all better.
We have had 34644 deaths
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/homeNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=english
and the dripping continues, slow and relentless but continuous.
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:19 am quote
As for taking most of the planet, the virus is pretty much there already.

Only 12 countries worldwide claim to have zero cases. Two of these are North Korea and Turkmenistan, two countries not known for transparency. The remaining countries are generally tiny island states.
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:23 am quote
northernerbill wrote:
I understand what you are saying, but this is a proper full on pandemic.

You quote other methods of how someone could die. Cancer, accidents, other illnesses etc.
But you donít pass cancer or accidents on by coughing or sneezing or touching or breathing near someone.
The sheer global figures for deaths around the world since this broke out is off the scale, and left unchecked will take most of the planet.
How can you not grasp this? Most countries have only had this a few months and look at the death tolls. The R rate with no actions will be huge. Hence when a localised outbreak happens, things get closed.
Every death is a tragedy, a deeply felt loss for those who stay behind.

Together with taxes, it is also an absolute certainty. Life is a terminal condition - all that is uncertain is the date and time of our death.

NB, by today's figures, the total number of deaths is still under 500 000.
https://www.worldometers.info/ runs a real time world population clock to visualise the number of people on Earth. For comparison, let us assume that COVID took its first victim on 1 January 2020 and by 30 June we will have lost 500 000 people to the virus. The number of deaths this year so far due to all causes including COVID is 28 million and the clock is still rolling. The number of births this year is 68 million and the clock is still rolling. So, in the face of the pandemic and all the other causes of death, we have gained 40 million children who will live an average of 71 years - and the clock is still rolling...! There is no way that this pandemic is going to wipe us off the planet.

I was always told that the worst thing you can do for your long term financial situation is to buy food and other daily consumables you need this week on credit that you must repay for the next year (with interest!) Yet this is exactly what governments around the world are doing right now - with repayment periods of decades, not years.
So it will not be us to repay the cost - it will be our children and grandchildren.
Governments are creating an artificial depression by forbidding people to work to earn their daily bread. Instead they tell them to stay home and in order to minimise their current needs, to draw social benefits (in countries where they do exist) - all just in case they get ill...?

YES - set guidelines and regulations for risk management in the workplace, on public transport and in public places.
YES - encourage people who can to work from home to reduce commuter infection risk.
YES - publicize the risks and dangers of social contact without masks, distancing and sanitizing.
YES - Inform, encourage and empower the ordinary citizen to manage their own health risks.

DON'T try to micromanage who may do what where and when.
DON'T think you can create a global sterile environment where nobody is at risk of some infection or other.
DON'T ignore the risks and create ignorance, foolishness and recklessness by prancing around in public without a mask.

So what am I doing?

I wear my mask in stores and in the company of workers. I wash hands and sanitize to the extent that my skin is starting to flake. I minimize my trips way from home. I don't wear my mask in the open air where I am maintaining social distancing from others - because the infection risk there is infinitesimal.

Last edited by Fudmucker on Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
Molto Verboso
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:33 am quote
Imagine a factory employing 100 people. Every time a worker tests positive (whether they were infected in the workplace, in transit, at home, visiting the supermarket etc) by your logic the factory must be closed and sanitized...? You may as well shut down the factory, retrench all the workers and cease business for a year or two until the virus is no longer around.

The world has completely lost economic perspective because of this hysteria over a particularly problematic virus that is killing less people than diabetes or ischemic heart disease.[/quote]

Agree wholeheartedly!

Graham
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:45 am quote
Friendly moderation reminder
This is usually the point when someone cannot help themselves and goes off on a political rant. Be warned that if you do you will be ejected from this thread at the least. Banning and thread locking are also always on the table.

If you really need to vent there is always "The Facebook" or "The Twitter" or a number of political pages on the interwebs. Writing it out can be cathartic but please don't publish it here.

Also note that politics are not the only thing that could trigger some of the above stated remedies.

This is not meant as an insult to anyone as most MV members get it and handle themselves quite well. Just a reminder especially for those who may be new or may not be aware of how serious the owner of this site and the moderators are.
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:35 am quote
Here on the north coast, one local grocery chain did close one location twice within five days for thorough sanitizing/cleaning. One employee tested positive and reported it; five days later, a second employee tested positive and reported it. I would hazard a guess most of the Heinen's grocery stores have over 100 employees (fulltime and parttime) easy, as the chain has 23 stores and 3500+ employees.

Heinenís temporarily closes (again) after worker tests positive for COVID-19

Last edited by Big_Boys_Mother on Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:18 am; edited 1 time in total
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:17 am quote
froggieposition wrote:
it is immoral to value lives in a monetary amount.
No it's not. It's being realistic. At some point, more people will die from the poverty due to economic collapse that would have died from the disease. It's not immoral to look at the whole picture. If that same amount of money could have been used to save twice as many people from starvation and other diseases as would have died from Covid19, how is that immoral? Stop your moral judgement and start thinking critically.
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:51 pm quote
rdhood wrote:
froggieposition wrote:
it is immoral to value lives in a monetary amount.
No it's not. It's being realistic. At some point, more people will die from the poverty due to economic collapse that would have died from the disease. It's not immoral to look at the whole picture. If that same amount of money could have been used to save twice as many people from starvation and other diseases as would have died from Covid19, how is that immoral? Stop your moral judgement and start thinking critically.
Well said. Plus, itís not zero sum. Easy to calculate the corona deaths - itís on every news cast every 30 minutes.

Itís far harder to calculate the HEALTH (not economic) costs of being shut down.

Mental illness in all forms. Increased addictions. Loss of learning for students, particularly the poorest among us with the least access to e-learning. Loss of functionality or even life because youíve injured your knee (or you need a new knee) and canít have surgery. Or the chemo patients going without treatment. This cost is real and significant and must be included in the evaluation.

And the economic costs do matter, cold and callous as that may seem. We could eliminate virtually all traffic fatalities by mechanically limiting all vehicles to 15-20 mph. It was devastate our country, but we would save 10ís of thousands every year. But we choose not to do that for innumerable economic and other reasons.
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:12 pm quote
OK so far some of you are saying that covid-19 concerns are overblown and there seem to be more than a few here. Do we just let it run rampant? No masks, no social distancing? Survival of the fittest? Where is the line drawn?

I agree the economy is important but this a pandemic and needs to be taken seriously or people will die from not being able to get treatment for other conditions. Many places that took it seriously for months now have an r value of around 1. That is they key, if you let it run rampant then you can hit hospital capacity which needs to be avoided.
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:49 pm quote
Fudmucker wrote:
I wash hands and sanitize to the extent that my skin is starting to flake.
Excessive handwashing and overuse of alcohol based sanitizers can weaken skin, cause irritation and remove benign bacteria that normally fend off pathogens.

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Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:12 pm quote
Re: Friendly moderation reminder
stickyfrog wrote:
This is usually the point when someone cannot help themselves and goes off on a political rant. Be warned that if you do you will be ejected from this thread at the least. Banning and thread locking are also always on the table.

If you really need to vent there is always "The Facebook" or "The Twitter" or a number of political pages on the interwebs. Writing it out can be cathartic but please don't publish it here.

Also note that politics are not the only thing that could trigger some of the above stated remedies.

This is not meant as an insult to anyone as most MV members get it and handle themselves quite well. Just a reminder especially for those who may be new or may not be aware of how serious the owner of this site and the moderators are.
Thank you. I am sure that a PM would be welcome if any particular person or post is skirting the rules too closely.

This virus is an emotive issue and it does help to focus this into succinct thought - particularly when we are restricted in our physical movements and the social interactions we were used to pre-2020.

(I edited my post to remove any vague reference to individuals.
I trust that helps to defuse the situation.)
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Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:24 pm quote
Harbinger wrote:
OK so far some of you are saying that covid-19 concerns are overblown and there seem to be more than a few here. Do we just let it run rampant? No masks, no social distancing? Survival of the fittest? Where is the line drawn?

I agree the economy is important but this a pandemic and needs to be taken seriously or people will die from not being able to get treatment for other conditions. Many places that took it seriously for months now have an r value of around 1. That is they key, if you let it run rampant then you can hit hospital capacity which needs to be avoided.
One can take a page from the book of one success story - Taiwan. Being used to wearing masks when feeling unwell and other common social distancing, they managed their situation without shutting down everything. Early border closure, widespread testing and well established pandemic and epidemic health protocols for identified cases have managed their R rate very well. They are having a second wave now, but it is still well-managed.

Roll on a vaccine - now also being tested in South Africa from this week.
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Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:16 am quote
Re: Friendly moderation reminder
Fudmucker wrote:
stickyfrog wrote:
This is usually the point when someone cannot help themselves and goes off on a political rant. Be warned that if you do you will be ejected from this thread at the least. Banning and thread locking are also always on the table.
[snip]
Thank you. I am sure that a PM would be welcome if any particular person or post is skirting the rules too closely.
The moderators very rarely have the time or the inclination to compose and send individual PMs - and doing so misses the opportunity to remind others of the guidelines.
Moderatus Rana
MP3 250 (sold) MP3 500 (current)
Joined: 11 Jul 2008
Posts: 21545
Location: Palatka, Florida
Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:16 am quote
Harbinger wrote:
OK so far some of you are saying that covid-19 concerns are overblown and there seem to be more than a few here. Do we just let it run rampant? No masks, no social distancing? Survival of the fittest? Where is the line drawn?

I agree the economy is important but this a pandemic and needs to be taken seriously or people will die from not being able to get treatment for other conditions. Many places that took it seriously for months now have an r value of around 1. That is they key, if you let it run rampant then you can hit hospital capacity which needs to be avoided.
You set your argument to be an all or nothing proposal. I don't think many people see it that way and almost every state in the US and other countries are using a phased approach to balance all of the important concerns including keeping the curve flat enough to not overwhelm healthcare, preserve jobs and business and the economy.

This is a novel virus. Very few if any have a natural or exposure immunity to it and only a small percent of the total population has been exposed to it. It is not going to go away no matter what steps we take with the exception of creating a vaccine and then a large portion of the population won't take that for their own reasons. Exposure is going to happen one way or another. We have the power to slow it somewhat and we can do it without destroying the world economy. Balance.

Another consideration I don't see mentioned much is the devastating impact that the economic down turn is causing in developing countries especially those that exist in an "informal economy" with little to no help from their cash strapped governments. Many or even most of these countries are not nearly as directly effected by the virus as countries with larger economies but the economic consequences are considerable. Couple that with drying up aid as a result of repressed economies and the devastation in the third world could make the coronavirus deaths seem small by comparison. Here is an interesting article on the subject. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/15/pandemic-is-ravaging-worlds-poor-even-if-theyre-untouched-by-virus/
Veni, Vidi, Posti
Kitted Vespa 2017 GTV 300, BMW 2017 C650GT, Ural 2019 Gear Up
Joined: 21 May 2017
Posts: 7063
Location: Downtown Toronto
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:21 pm quote
The real issue is that in some places where it has been allowed to roam free more or less are now looking at backing off.

Having an opinion is fine but this is the reality of what can happen. As much as you may want to ignore it and let it run it's course, you just can't. The public or more specifically the government can not let that happen. This is especially true somewhere that does not have universal health care.

This is just Florida

" Florida, seen possibly as the next US epicenter, reported its highest one-day total of new cases on Saturday with 9,585 cases "

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/27/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html
Molto Verboso
lx 50
Joined: 09 Oct 2017
Posts: 1060
Location: Brighton
Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:02 pm quote
Plus this whole debate revolves around deaths.

People are also suffering other life changing complications due to the virus.

Anyway Iím out of this, too many blinkered crazy opinions which just blow my mind, adults can think that way.
Ossessionato
2009 GTV250 (Gone), 2003 Inder trailer, 2001 BMW R1100RT
Joined: 24 Jun 2009
Posts: 4436
Location: Santa Cruz California
Sun Jun 28, 2020 6:44 pm quote
Tip one tonight for those 501,000 people that have succumbed to Covid 19 worldwide in just 3 months. About 1/4 of the deaths were in the US.

Be safe: wash your hands often, wear a mask & physically distance,.
Miguel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_b9KJu6y_c
Ossessionato
Yamaha Tricity 155 Urban 2019 - MV Agusta 125 RS 1956 - Yamaha Majesty 250 DX 1998
Joined: 21 Jul 2007
Posts: 3579
Location: Latina (Italy)
Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:17 pm quote
Miguel wrote:
Tip one tonight for those 501,000 people that have succumbed to Covid 19 worldwide in just 3 months. About 1/4 of the deaths were in the US.

Be safe: wash your hands often, wear a mask & physically distance,.
Miguel
Very good, a hug and a kiss ... virtual.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
2007 LX150 2015 GTS 2013 BV 350
Joined: 13 Sep 2012
Posts: 9193
Location: Fond du Lac, Wisconsin
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:25 am quote
Miguel wrote:
Tip one tonight for those 501,000 people that have succumbed to Covid 19 worldwide in just 3 months. About 1/4 of the deaths were in the US.

Be safe: wash your hands often, wear a mask & physically distance,.
Miguel
At the rate we're going we might hit the dubious distinction of "half."
Veni, Vidi, Posti
MP3 500, GTS 250 (both 2008 MY), 2012 Honda NC700 DCT
Joined: 02 Mar 2013
Posts: 6019
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:33 am quote
fledermaus wrote:
Miguel wrote:
Tip one tonight for those 501,000 people that have succumbed to Covid 19 worldwide in just 3 months. About 1/4 of the deaths were in the US.

Be safe: wash your hands often, wear a mask & physically distance,.
Miguel
At the rate we're going we might hit the dubious distinction of "half."
My prediction ~late April was the US would see between 250,000-500,000 deaths by year end. Some folks scoffed at me saying the "current estimates" were a fraction of that. Sometimes it sucks to be correct.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
Kitted Vespa 2017 GTV 300, BMW 2017 C650GT, Ural 2019 Gear Up
Joined: 21 May 2017
Posts: 7063
Location: Downtown Toronto
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:10 am quote
Madison Sully wrote:
fledermaus wrote:
Miguel wrote:
Tip one tonight for those 501,000 people that have succumbed to Covid 19 worldwide in just 3 months. About 1/4 of the deaths were in the US.

Be safe: wash your hands often, wear a mask & physically distance,.
Miguel
At the rate we're going we might hit the dubious distinction of "half."
My prediction ~late April was the US would see between 250,000-500,000 deaths by year end. Some folks scoffed at me saying the "current estimates" were a fraction of that. Sometimes it sucks to be correct.
Those are some crazy, scary and sad numbers. I'm going to hope you are wrong and I'm sure you do as well. However the way things are trending it looks really bad in the US. We are doing better but are not out of the woods yet. Seems some areas are starting to take things more seriously so fingers crossed. I do think the US/Canada border is staying closed for a while yet. Should be interesting to see what countries are allowed to fly where. I know I'm not getting on a plane any time soon. But hey at least our pilots are legitimately licensed here
Veni, Vidi, Posti
2007 LX150 2015 GTS 2013 BV 350
Joined: 13 Sep 2012
Posts: 9193
Location: Fond du Lac, Wisconsin
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:43 am quote
Harbinger wrote:
Madison Sully wrote:
fledermaus wrote:
At the rate we're going we might hit the dubious distinction of "half."
My prediction ~late April was the US would see between 250,000-500,000 deaths by year end. Some folks scoffed at me saying the "current estimates" were a fraction of that. Sometimes it sucks to be correct.
Those are some crazy, scary and sad numbers. I'm going to hope you are wrong and I'm sure you do as well. However the way things are trending it looks really bad in the US. We are doing better but are not out of the woods yet. Seems some areas are starting to take things more seriously so fingers crossed. I do think the US/Canada border is staying closed for a while yet.
Scary indeed, though I think it's got to be what living in the midst of war is like...you just go ahead and live with all the carnage around you.

I was reminiscing about a ride a few of us were on last year where we crossed over to Sault St. Marie for a Tim Horton's visit and a look around. Was a fun diversion, but even that wouldn't fly these days. Going to have to make my own poutine at this rate.
Enthusiast
2007 Aprilia Sportcity 250ie, 2003 Genuine Stella
Joined: 07 Feb 2008
Posts: 91
Location: Saint Louis
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:26 pm quote
Madison Sully wrote:
fledermaus wrote:
Miguel wrote:
Tip one tonight for those 501,000 people that have succumbed to Covid 19 worldwide in just 3 months. About 1/4 of the deaths were in the US.

Be safe: wash your hands often, wear a mask & physically distance,.
Miguel
At the rate we're going we might hit the dubious distinction of "half."
My prediction ~late April was the US would see between 250,000-500,000 deaths by year end. Some folks scoffed at me saying the "current estimates" were a fraction of that. Sometimes it sucks to be correct.
There are 250,000 unconfirmed deaths from Feb thru April that have not been talked about. In fact during March and April 87,000 people died of Pneumonia where as a normal year sees 12-15k die. The extra 70+ thousand are likely from coronovirus and will be added to the numbers through an algorithum much like the H1N1 year which had only 15k comfirmed deaths and an estimated 60k deaths.

So we could very well be over your estimate right now as we speak...
Ossessionato
2009 GTV250 (Gone), 2003 Inder trailer, 2001 BMW R1100RT
Joined: 24 Jun 2009
Posts: 4436
Location: Santa Cruz California
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:38 pm quote
Madison Sully wrote:
fledermaus wrote:
Miguel wrote:
Tip one tonight for those 501,000 people that have succumbed to Covid 19 worldwide in just 3 months. About 1/4 of the deaths were in the US.

Be safe: wash your hands often, wear a mask & physically distance,.
Miguel
At the rate we're going we might hit the dubious distinction of "half."
My prediction ~late April was the US would see between 250,000-500,000 deaths by year end. Some folks scoffed at me saying the "current estimates" were a fraction of that. Sometimes it sucks to be correct.
The current doubling rate of covid-related deaths in the US is 2 months [reference]. Current deaths in US as of today is 128K [reference]. Without better intervention, the US will see 256K deaths about Sept 1, 512K deaths about Nov 1 and 1M by years end . The numbers are even worst if you consider Subseven's comments above.

You may not like the facts but the Corona Virus doesn't care what you think or like. It will infect you if you don't protect yourself. The death rate from those that have confirmed infections is ~5% worldwide and 4.8% in US.

Another disturbing factor is the growing evidence that even those who survive Covid-19 can suffer long-term adverse effects: scarred lungs, damaged hearts and perhaps neurological disorders [reference].

Best advice is wash your hands often, wear a mask and physically distance whenever possible.

Be safe!! Miguel
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