[NSR] Corona Virus.
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Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:53 am quote
Wife came home from school today.
Head teacher's husband died over the weekend.
Positive COVID infection case, went to hospital and was recovering well.
He contracted another infection in the hospital and died from that.
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Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:14 pm quote
Awakening of Covid in Italy, uncontrolled travelers have spread new outbreaks.

https://www.quotidiano.net/cronaca/veneto-coronavirus-focolaio-1.5289977

Venice, 4 July 2020 - Luca Zaia returns to the case of the Coronavirus-positive entrepreneur after a trip to Serbia and who, despite this, continued to work, also participating in a party and a funeral. "The Serbian patient 0 who infected the entrepreneur from Vicenza seems to have died on Wednesday", said the President of the Region today during the usual press conference to take stock of the progress of the epidemic in Veneto. "Since the beginning of the emergency, there are 19,318 cases of positivity to Coronavirus in Veneto, 4 more than yesterday," explains the governor in the aftermath of the increase in the contagion index that jumped to 1.63.
"Yesterday we talked about a cluster, an outbreak, with 5 positives. Although someone threw petrol on the fire, I remember that we imported the virus from a person who went to Serbia and brought it back to us", repeats the governor of Veneto Zaia. And he adds: "Veneto has never recovered the wave of contagions. I see that there is a sort of will at national level that is not so coherent with what happened. The virus was not born in Veneto".
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Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:03 pm quote
On a cases per population basis, South Africa is now just 10% behind Italy and another few percent behind UK, which is of concern. We are fortunate that our death rate per population is only 10% of either of the two.

Early days still for us...
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Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:34 am quote
From an article I saw yesterday (July 8, 2020):
Quote:
If Texas were a country, right now it would be the world's 11th-most active hotspot with 1,600 cases per 1 million residents. The current outbreak is worse than countries like Panama, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kuwait, Brazil, Chile and South Africa.
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Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:14 pm quote
Things change daily, but by today's figures, 1 600 per 1M does not tally with my data reference source, which shows Texas as having 8 312 cases per 1M population.

(source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

South Africa (4 018) has passed Italy (4 009)on a cases per 1M population.
We are heading for UK levels next (4 236).

South Africa's death rate per 1M is lower at much lower at 63 compared to Italy at 578, UK at 657 and USA at 410, of which Texas reflects 105.
The densely populated areas lead by far in US - New Jersey (1 748) New York (1 663) Connecticut (1 220) and Massachusetts (1 200) with the US average deaths being 410 per 1M population.

(source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ )
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Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:53 pm quote
News from Italy:
JULY 12 2020

Coronavirus, from July 14 new measures between masks, sanitization and controls
The government thinks of an extension of some prohibitions and an increase in controls also due to the new outbreaks that are registered throughout the country.

State of emergency extended and new measures to combat coronavirus, including a ban on entry for citizens from certain countries at risk. These are some of the adjustments that the government is preparing to launch ahead of July 14, when the provisions currently in force to contain the epidemic expire. Among the various interventions, also the extension of the ban on indoor discos.

The extension of the state of emergency will serve to legitimize any new restrictions on personal freedoms, and will be adopted by a resolution of the Council of Ministers. In the meantime, however, the new measures will be illustrated on Tuesday in Parliament by the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza.
According to Corriere della Sera, the obligation will remain in closed places, when the distance cannot be respected, to wear a mask; instead stop the obligation of gloves which, according to the Regions, if used incorrectly "may represent an additional risk". The obligation to sanitize the premises continues, as well as those to measure the temperature and make hand sanitizer dispensers available in offices and shops. In public places you will have to leave your personal details.

Apparently, the reopening of indoor discos will postpone, which should be postponed to the end of the month from 14 July, but the Regions will be able to grant derogations and assume responsibility for them.
The ban on gatherings will also remain in force, especially because of the new outbreaks that are continually identified in the country, and controls will continue in places of nightlife and on beaches. While on the festivals, country fairs and summer festivals, the debate is still ongoing on the possibility of more stringent controls.
Finally, the government should extend the ban on entry to Italy for those arriving from Armenia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Kuwait, Oman, Bosnia Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Moldova, Brazil, Chile, Panama, Peru and the Republic Dominican, while the 14-day quarantine requirement remains for those coming from the US.

https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-dal-14-luglio-nuove-misure-tra-mascherine-sanificazione-e-controlli_20564632-202002a.shtml
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Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:33 pm quote
Fudmucker wrote:
On a cases per population basis, South Africa is now just 10% behind Italy and another few percent behind UK, which is of concern. We are fortunate that our death rate per population is only 10% of either of the two.

Early days still for us...
Might be that they are counted as TB fatalities?
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Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:43 pm quote
NZscoot wrote:
Fudmucker wrote:
On a cases per population basis, South Africa is now just 10% behind Italy and another few percent behind UK, which is of concern. We are fortunate that our death rate per population is only 10% of either of the two.

Early days still for us...
Might be that they are counted as TB fatalities?
... well ... sometimes I think even "experts" scientists don't know what they are doing.
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Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:28 am quote
We're getting ready for phase 3 with numbers aprroaching double digits for Ontario. Toronto will probably lag behind some other regions in opening up to phase 3 but it should be soon. Hopefully we can keep it under control as we reopen and most importantly avoid a second wave.
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Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:48 am quote
Attila wrote:
NZscoot wrote:
Fudmucker wrote:
On a cases per population basis, South Africa is now just 10% behind Italy and another few percent behind UK, which is of concern. We are fortunate that our death rate per population is only 10% of either of the two.

Early days still for us...
Might be that they are counted as TB fatalities?
... well ... sometimes I think even "experts" scientists don't know what they are doing.
All patients admitted with symptoms are tested. If they test positive, they are reported as COVID related death because COVID is defined as a notifiable disease here.

The President announced two major restrictions last night.

Without prior notice to anyone, the sale, transport and distribution of alcohol has again been banned. We were already on sales only only on Monday Tuesdays and Wednesdays, but now those have been taken away as well. The reasoning is that alcohol related driving is causing increased cases in trauma and they want those beds and clinical staff available for COVID cases. I drink perhaps two or three whiskys a week, but now I must be punished for the actions of some inebriated SOB behind the wheel.

Our curfew is back...
From 9PM to 4AM everybody must be at home
(unless you are travelling between home and work.)

Our tourism industry is devastated. For 120 Days now, wildlife conservation has been prohibited from earning any income. This is likely continue for at least 2 more months. Hotels cannot accept bookings unless it is a business trip.
Molto Verboso
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Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:03 pm quote
Fudmucker wrote:
I drink perhaps two or three whiskys a week, but now I must be punished for the actions of some inebriated SOB behind the wheel.
Can you still get packages delivered via Post Office?

Maybe someone could mail you some hand sanitizer solution? Any particular flavor you like? Jamaican Rum, Jack Daniels, ?????
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Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:39 pm quote
You can also build a distiller, it's quite easy.
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Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:15 pm quote
Attila wrote:
You can also build a distiller, it's quite easy.
Stringent quality control is needed. Honestly officer, that's what I was doing (actually it's legal here in NZ)


In other news.... Under lockdown a lot of people didn't die in NZ, 548 fewer than over the same period last year.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421085/fewer-deaths-in-lockdown-than-previous-year
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Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:30 am quote
znomit wrote:
Attila wrote:
You can also build a distiller, it's quite easy.
Stringent quality control is needed. Honestly officer, that's what I was doing (actually it's legal here in NZ)
Home stilling is legal in ZA for own consumption.
(So is growing cannabis for own consumption by the way, but that is far more difficult to learn!)

The bulk of the home-made booze here is beer and cider (it's apple season).
During the last ban it was pineapple season and that became the favourite source of hooch.
The guys use freeze distillation to take unwanted water out and to concentrate the good stuff.

Government got sneaky last time and ordered the yeast manufacturers to stop making brewers yeast.
Now we bake artisan bread at home instead to break the boredom and relieve the stress.
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Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:34 am quote
7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID cases per 1,000,000 people since February: US is in orange (below South Africa) and UK (on the uptick) is right above Canada. What are Canada, the UK, and Italy doing well that South Africa and the USA are not? I'm a middle school teacher (ages 12 - 14) and we are returning to school in September... I'm a tad concerned after looking at these numbers!

Covid19.jpg

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Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:55 pm quote
theschuman wrote:
What are Canada, the UK, and Italy doing well that South Africa and the USA are not?
The former have populations that tend to adhere to 'official' advice (when there is some!) rather better than the latter perhaps? It only takes a small proportion of blinkered individualists to wreck containment strategies.
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Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:56 pm quote
jimc wrote:
theschuman wrote:
What are Canada, the UK, and Italy doing well that South Africa and the USA are not?
The former have populations that tend to adhere to 'official' advice (when there is some!) rather better than the latter perhaps? It only takes a small proportion of blinkered individualists to wreck containment strategies.
Well said.
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Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:54 pm quote
Just released info on fraudulent lab results in florida. Will be interesting hoe press handles it. Local station in Orlando!
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Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:59 pm quote
jimc wrote:
theschuman wrote:
What are Canada, the UK, and Italy doing well that South Africa and the USA are not?
The former have populations that tend to adhere to 'official' advice (when there is some!) rather better than the latter perhaps? It only takes a small proportion of blinkered individualists to wreck containment strategies.
Yes, we are rule followers for the most part. The wearing of masks is absolutely not a problem here and the vast majority of people do so, many in situations where it is not even required. As far as in public spaces like the grocery store , retail shops and public transit etc I'd put compliance at close to 100 % . Of course we have our problems with compliance and those that refuse to do so but that is the minority. The gov't is also taking it seriously which helps. A bar less than a 5 minute walk from where I live lost their liquor license for flaunting the regulations. ( https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2020/07/toronto-bar-goldie-loses-license-illegal-gathering/ ) .

Best of luck all and stay safe.
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Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:13 pm quote
Attila wrote:
jimc wrote:
theschuman wrote:
What are Canada, the UK, and Italy doing well that South Africa and the USA are not?
The former have populations that tend to adhere to 'official' advice (when there is some!) rather better than the latter perhaps? It only takes a small proportion of blinkered individualists to wreck containment strategies.
Well said.
I won't disagree with you. South Africa has a history of individualism and civil resistance to government. Much of this arises from our history and the resistance movement prior to 1994. Now we have a government that is tainted by corruption on a massive scale under our last President who permitted outside businessmen to capture the State and to fraudulently bleed the country of trillions of dollars into Dubai.

The response to the pandemic was originally supported by some of our communities. Others deemed it to be a "white mans' disease" as most of the imported cases were holidaymakers returning from Europe. When schools were shut down and businesses closed, many African communities held drunken "COVID parties" to occupy their unexpected bonus leisure time. (The videos are on Youtube.) Most others responsibly stayed at home and flattened the curve.

The transport and sale of all tobacco products was made illegal at less than 24 hours notice. The excuse given is that it is meant to encourage smokers to give up under a forced "cold turkey" situation. But, as in the case of Prohibition in the US, the market has gone underground, flourished and South Africa's tobacco Al Capone types are getting very rich, but no taxes are being paid...

The transport and sale of alcohol was banned for 90 days, devastating the restaurant and liquor industry. This was partially reversed and home consumption was made legal again, so responsible people at home could have a glass of wine or a beer with their evening meals. Restaurants were allowed to send wine with take out food and the restaurant economy just started to recover...

But again, that irresponsible part of our communities (particularly the poor living in overcrowded conditions) reverted to type, drank to excess and the fights, assaults, rapes and traffic accidents started flooding hospital trauma departments. On Sunday, the President shut it all down again with no notice to industry or the responsible community. So it will just go underground again.

If you would ask me what I think is needed, it is LEADERSHIP.

Unlike UK, Europe, USA, NZ, etc. our President did not appear on national media AT ALL for three weeks. He did not speak of his concerns at the trend developing. Instead he treated us like naughty school children and banned the alcohol again and slammed a 9PM to 4AM curfue on us all - guilty and innocent - with less than 12 hours notice.

Yes, we are now going into a steep upward curve. Government at National, Provincial and Municipal level have had 100+ days to prepare the Health Sector for this and have not succeeded. Our economy is battling to breathe and the COVID regulations are kneeling on our necks. South Africa is going to pay a very high economic price for saving lives from this virus. Businesses are being destroyed, millions of jobs are being shed, but those in government are sitting pretty, earning full salary while isolating at home. I don't know where the money is coming from to pay their salaries, because the taxpayers are not earning, so they won't pay taxes.

All other preventable diseases have fallen by the wayside and people are going to die from them too. Only one illness seems important now...

I may run foul of "no politics" from this... but I am being truthful with no political partisanship whatsoever.

Be safe. Ride safe.
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Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:36 am quote
102 new cases in Ontario yesterday in a province of over 15 million people. Fingers tightly crossed we get that down even further and keep it there. As we open up in phase 3 though there is some worry it can shoot back up.
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Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:07 am quote
Compare the total deaths to the population of the country to get the real perspective. I think in the us it is point oh seven percent. Total population decided into deaths. 330 million divided into 23 thousand deaths. .
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Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:09 am quote
New cases verses deaths?
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Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:25 am quote
Fudmucker wrote:
Attila wrote:
jimc wrote:
theschuman wrote:
What are Canada, the UK, and Italy doing well that South Africa and the USA are not?
The former have populations that tend to adhere to 'official' advice (when there is some!) rather better than the latter perhaps? It only takes a small proportion of blinkered individualists to wreck containment strategies.
Well said.
I won't disagree with you. South Africa has a history of individualism and civil resistance to government. Much of this arises from our history and the resistance movement prior to 1994. Now we have a government that is tainted by corruption on a massive scale under our last President who permitted outside businessmen to capture the State and to fraudulently bleed the country of trillions of dollars into Dubai.

The response to the pandemic was originally supported by some of our communities. Others deemed it to be a "white mans' disease" as most of the imported cases were holidaymakers returning from Europe. When schools were shut down and businesses closed, many African communities held drunken "COVID parties" to occupy their unexpected bonus leisure time. (The videos are on Youtube.) Most others responsibly stayed at home and flattened the curve.

The transport and sale of all tobacco products was made illegal at less than 24 hours notice. The excuse given is that it is meant to encourage smokers to give up under a forced "cold turkey" situation. But, as in the case of Prohibition in the US, the market has gone underground, flourished and South Africa's tobacco Al Capone types are getting very rich, but no taxes are being paid...

The transport and sale of alcohol was banned for 90 days, devastating the restaurant and liquor industry. This was partially reversed and home consumption was made legal again, so responsible people at home could have a glass of wine or a beer with their evening meals. Restaurants were allowed to send wine with take out food and the restaurant economy just started to recover...

But again, that irresponsible part of our communities (particularly the poor living in overcrowded conditions) reverted to type, drank to excess and the fights, assaults, rapes and traffic accidents started flooding hospital trauma departments. On Sunday, the President shut it all down again with no notice to industry or the responsible community. So it will just go underground again.

If you would ask me what I think is needed, it is LEADERSHIP.

Unlike UK, Europe, USA, NZ, etc. our President did not appear on national media AT ALL for three weeks. He did not speak of his concerns at the trend developing. Instead he treated us like naughty school children and banned the alcohol again and slammed a 9PM to 4AM curfue on us all - guilty and innocent - with less than 12 hours notice.

Yes, we are now going into a steep upward curve. Government at National, Provincial and Municipal level have had 100+ days to prepare the Health Sector for this and have not succeeded. Our economy is battling to breathe and the COVID regulations are kneeling on our necks. South Africa is going to pay a very high economic price for saving lives from this virus. Businesses are being destroyed, millions of jobs are being shed, but those in government are sitting pretty, earning full salary while isolating at home. I don't know where the money is coming from to pay their salaries, because the taxpayers are not earning, so they won't pay taxes.

All other preventable diseases have fallen by the wayside and people are going to die from them too. Only one illness seems important now...

I may run foul of "no politics" from this... but I am being truthful with no political partisanship whatsoever.

Be safe. Ride safe.
Sounds pretty awful out there FM. The one mercy here has been the ability of our National Health Service to cope very well so far, despite a distinct lack of PPE for weeks!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53396057?xtor=ES-211-[34057_PANUK_SOT_28_CNV_Send20EngagedCNV1to19_RET]-20200716-[bbcnews_insidesouthafricashospitalofhorrors_newshealthcvd]
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Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:36 am quote
With the good weather and the calm sea we have the problem the landings of illegal immigrants begin to be, they arrive from Africa by any means that can float and when they are ashore they run away. A good percentage of those caught have Covid and other no less dangerous infectious diseases. They are starting to be a serious problem ...
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Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:52 am quote
zigzagguzzi wrote:
Compare the total deaths to the population of the country to get the real perspective. I think in the us it is point oh seven percent. Total population decided into deaths. 330 million divided into 23 thousand deaths. .
U.S. deaths is currently heading towards 140,000.
Where has 'only' had 23k deaths so far?
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Fri Jul 17, 2020 4:43 am quote
Thanks for your insights on why numbers are rising in S. Africa and the U.S. as opposed to other areas. Compliance with masks here in Connecticut is high, but not close to 100%. As requested (sort of) - COVID-19 deaths per 1,000,000 people in mostly English-speaking countries, with Australia and India added to be more inclusive of continents:

COVID19Deaths_07_17_20.jpg

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Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:02 am quote
theschuman wrote:
Thanks for your insights on why numbers are rising in S. Africa and the U.S. as opposed to other areas. Compliance with masks here in Connecticut is high, but not close to 100%. As requested (sort of) - COVID-19 deaths per 1,000,000 people in mostly English-speaking countries, with Australia and India added to be more inclusive of continents:
Australia is a bit worrying as they had things pretty well in hand but are now seeing an uptick. The response seems to be quick though and Melbourne has gone back in to lockdown. I’m worried as are many here that we may face the same problem in the future. Mask compliance here is very good and TBH it really, really isn’t hard to put one on when you go in to a public place. You get used to having one with you just like you check to make sure you have your keys when you leave the house. It’s inconvenient sure but it is a proven measure to help stop the spread and easy to do.

The US? Oh boy... that’s getting pretty ugly and at least some places are starting to take is seriously. When you start bringing in refrigerator trucks you know you have a problem.
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Fri Jul 17, 2020 5:34 am quote
fleece wrote:
Sounds pretty awful out there FM. The one mercy here has been the ability of our National Health Service to cope very well so far, despite a distinct lack of PPE for weeks!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53396057?xtor=ES-211-[34057_PANUK_SOT_28_CNV_Send20EngagedCNV1to19_RET]-20200716-[bbcnews_insidesouthafricashospitalofhorrors_newshealthcvd]
That is the public health platform that our government thinks will support a compulsory National Health Insurance initiative.

Lord help us!

The Trades Union here are wielding power similar to the situation in UK before Maggie Thatcher.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:35 am quote
Looks like the Toronto Blue Jays will not be playing their home games up the street from me this season. I have to agree with the federal government on this and it's not like there would have been fans in the stands anyway.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/18/us/canada-mlb-blue-jays-denied-spt-trnd/index.html
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Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:41 pm quote
Up! This thread is more important than ever.

The Corona hasn't gone away yet, he's watching us and waiting ...
In Italy there is a slow but gradual rise, reason? People do not respect the rules, they believe that it is over or not serious.

Key Points
The overall picture of the transmission and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in Italy remains one of a low level of criticality with a cumulative incidence of the previous 14 days (June 29-July 12) of 4.6 per 100,000 inhabitants (up slightly).

At the national level, a slight increase in the number of newly diagnosed cases reported to the integrated surveillance system coordinated by the ISS was observed in the week of July 6-13 with respect to the previous week of monitoring, with a national Rt reproduction number of 1.01, although it is below 1 in the interval of lower confidence. This indicates that transmission in our country has been substantially stable in recent weeks.

These are the findings of the health ministry, the Cabina di Regia and the Higher Health Institute's weekly monitoring report on phase two of the coronavirus emergency, regarding the period following the third phase of activity reopenings on June 3.

It is likely that for many of the cases reported during that week, the infection was contracted two-three weeks earlier, so prevalently in the last 10 days of June.

Some of the cases identified via screening, however, may have contracted the infection previously. New cases of infection were diagnosed in almost all of the regions and autonomous provinces during the week of monitoring, with an increase in cases with respect to the previous week of monitoring in some. This is largely due to intense screening and investigation of cases, with the identification and monitoring of close contacts.

In addition to outbreaks attributable to the importation of infection, some small chains of transmission of unknown origin continue to be reported on the national territory.

This highlights the fact that the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy is not over.

In some regions, the presence of new cases of infection imported from other regions or foreign states was highlighted.

The epidemiological situation, therefore, remains extremely fluid. The Rt estimates continue to fluctuate in some regions and autonomous provinces in relation to outbreaks of transmission hotspots that are subsequently contained.

As a result, in the last 14 days, estimates of Rt rates of over 1 have been observed in six regions where there have been recent outbreaks. There continue to be no signs of care services being overwhelmed. Although in decline, the number of new cases reported remains high in some regions.

This calls for caution as it shows that, in some parts of the country, SARS-CoV-2 is still circulating in a significant way. It is essential to keep attention levels high and continue to strengthen testing-tracing-tracking activities in order to be able to quickly identify all the potential transmission hotspots and keep control of the epidemic.

Otherwise, we could see a reversal of the trend in the coming weeks, with a significant increase in the number of cases at the national level.

For this reason it is necessary to keep awareness high about the fluidity of the epidemiological situation and the importance of continuing to rigorously respect of the measures necessary to reduce the risk of transmission, such as individual hygiene and physical distancing.
Conclusions

Although Italy's lockdown measures made it effectively possible to control SARS-CoV-2 infection, at the moment we are in a situation of stationary transmission at the national level in which widespread transmission of the virus persists and which, when favourable conditions occur, causes outbreaks, including some of a significant size and are sometimes linked to cases of infection contracted in foreign states.

The number of new cases of infection remains contained on the whole. This is thanks to testing-tracing-tracking activities, which make it possible to break potential transmission chains at an early stage. The reduction in the time between the start of symptoms and diagnosis/isolation makes faster identification and clinical care for the people who contract the infection possible.

It is not surprising to observe a low number of cases that require hospitalization as, given the characteristics of the COVID-19 illness, only a small proportion of the total number of people who contract the SARS-CoV-2 virus go on to have a serious clinical situation.

This outcome, which was expected on the basis of the strategy adopted during the transition phase, makes it possible to manage the presence of the virus on the national territory, in a situation of reopened activities, without overloading health care services.


Source: Ansa

http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/homeNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=english
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:09 am quote
AN ALALOGY - SOME PERSPECTIVE FROM AFRICA

The wildebeest in Africa migrate every year in search of food to survive. When they get to the Mara River, the crocodiles are waiting. The wildebeest know this and they know they will lose a few when they cross, but for the sake of survival of the herd, they cross anyway. They have done this successfully for years and survived.

Implementing lockdown is like putting up a fence to prevent the wildebeest from crossing the Mara River in order to save those who would be eaten by the crocodiles and, as a result, the whole herd dies of starvation.

Kingsley Holgate


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingsley_Holgate

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Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:28 am quote
Pretty weak analogy that. You know where the crocodiles are. Unless you have world beating test, track and trace you have little clue where the virus is- it certainly isn't restricted to a clearly demarcated river crossing!
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:06 am quote
Fudmucker wrote:
AN ALALOGY - SOME PERSPECTIVE FROM AFRICA

The wildebeest in Africa migrate every year in search of food to survive. When they get to the Mara River, the crocodiles are waiting. The wildebeest know this and they know they will lose a few when they cross, but for the sake of survival of the herd, they cross anyway. They have done this successfully for years and survived.

Implementing lockdown is like putting up a fence to prevent the wildebeest from crossing the Mara River in order to save those who would be eaten by the crocodiles and, as a result, the whole herd dies of starvation.

Kingsley Holgate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingsley_Holgate

To extend your analogy:

Humans are able to build boats/bridges to cross the river and avoid the crocodiles. This is like scientists/doctors working on a vaccine and/or treatment. By "putting up the fence" we're reducing the stress on the hospitals (bridge/boat builders), thus enabling them to produce the safest way to cross the river with minimal loss of the herd.
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:20 am quote
monogodo wrote:
Fudmucker wrote:
AN ALALOGY - SOME PERSPECTIVE FROM AFRICA

The wildebeest in Africa migrate every year in search of food to survive. When they get to the Mara River, the crocodiles are waiting. The wildebeest know this and they know they will lose a few when they cross, but for the sake of survival of the herd, they cross anyway. They have done this successfully for years and survived.

Implementing lockdown is like putting up a fence to prevent the wildebeest from crossing the Mara River in order to save those who would be eaten by the crocodiles and, as a result, the whole herd dies of starvation.

Kingsley Holgate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingsley_Holgate

To extend your analogy:

Humans are able to build boats/bridges to cross the river and avoid the crocodiles. This is like scientists/doctors working on a vaccine and/or treatment. By "putting up the fence" we're reducing the stress on the hospitals (bridge/boat builders), thus enabling them to produce the safest way to cross the river with minimal loss of the herd.
Well put.

I know the lockdown and restrictions have been very hard for many people. This includes myself both professionally and personally. However it is something we have to do as a community and you CAN get the numbers down if the best practices are followed. Canada may not be the best country when it comes to beating this but we have made progress and business is coming back. We have "flattened the curve" and hope to keep it that way. YES we are a much smaller country population wise when you look at our neighbour to the south however we do have large cities such as Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, etc that have the numbers under control WITH lots of testing. Just "culling the herd" is not the best approach nor perhaps ethical. As far as herd immunity... yeah that is not going to work when you crunch the numbers. A vaccine is more likely before we see that.

Yes this sucks and it's hard but we are talking about a century event. We need to get through this and we will. It takes strength, perseverance and the oh so hard skill of putting a mask on and hand washing.

South Africa... from what I can gather from the news the corruption is really a problem. It's absolutely sickening that someone can profit from this and steal from the people that really need the help. I hope they get caught and find a nice dank prison cell where they can mull over what they have done for a long, long time. Man we can be a really shitty species at times.
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:18 pm quote
Harbinger wrote:
South Africa... from what I can gather from the news the corruption is really a problem. It's absolutely sickening that someone can profit from this and steal from the people that really need the help. I hope they get caught and find a nice dank prison cell where they can mull over what they have done for a long, long time. Man we can be a really shitty species at times.
No chance of that. The police are too busy arresting people for illegal cigarettes, booze, crossing provincial borders without a permit, even driving 7 minutes after curfew after taking restaurant staff home...

The President's spokesman (spokesperson for the gender sensitive) has just taken paid leave pending investigations into a R125M (about USD$10M) tender awarded to her husband's company for supplying PPE to Gauteng Provincial Government.
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:21 pm quote
You missed the point, VG I'm afraid. Harbinger got it and added a valid comment.

I agree with all the comments on "flattening the curve" but the whole world is so terrified at the immediate effect of the virus that they are not considering the real point of Holgate's analogy.

AT WHAT COST?

The world economy has been totally disrupted - not by the virus itself, but by the steps taken by humans (i.e. the fences) to try to stop the effects of the virus... the crocodile deaths. No bridges built, no multiple crossing points, no boats... just the fence.

I am sure that everyone can give examples, but I can only speak from my Africa perspective.
Whole sectors of our economy have been DESTROYED, not disrupted.
Our tourism industry is dead. Foreign flights to ZA are down 98-99%.
The biggest losers are our nature conservation areas.

What can be a safer environment to quarantine than open air, sunshine and minimal people?



When our government brought back citizens stuck in China, they quarantined them at a peri-urban game park near Polokwane, surrounded by hundreds of acres thorny grassland. Each person on that aircraft had their own room and meals were served in the outdoors or in the room. All persons survived and nobody was infected. Right now, that very facility is closed because even local tourists are prevented by regulation from staying there.

So capital invested is not giving any return, all employment at the resort is stopped and losses are increasing every day. There are hundreds of game lodges in our country. All are closed. All are no longer supporting the living costs of those who were employed there. Instead of allowing them to function with the new bridges of face masks, social distancing and effective sanitizing (as applicable in every home in the country) the only allowance made is that they may take self drive day visitors in their own cars. Visitors may not sleep over and the visitors may not cross a provincial border to get there. So there are no day visitors...

Sadly, there appears to be a very sinister motive behind all these restrictions. Many believe that Government is deliberately destroying existing businesses so that a sweeping socialist recovery plan can be ushered in after COVID.
I cannot expand on that without breaching the 'no politics" rule.
I can't prove it, I just know it.
I have lived here long enough...

Last edited by Fudmucker on Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:23 pm quote
Harbinger wrote:
South Africa... from what I can gather from the news the corruption is really a problem. It's absolutely sickening that someone can profit from this and steal from the people that really need the help. I hope they get caught and find a nice dank prison cell where they can mull over what they have done for a long, long time. Man we can be a really shitty species at times.
The President speaks to the nation:

CyrilSpeaks.jpg

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Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:47 pm quote
OK Fud, I will have to look for a place for you to renovate, perhaps an ancient ruin in the Lower Maremma where to settle you and near an ancient Tuscan village where in the afternoon you can play cards and drink good fresh wine ...
In Covid's era this can make you forget the bad time and think that everything is normal.
Do not panic except in winter when cold and snow fall and flu diseases return ... there have always been, the best thing to do is to be cautious and accept life as it there is.
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Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:22 pm quote
Pro Sports “Glimpse” as of 07.28.2020
Pro Sports “Glimpse” as of 07.28.2020 from the View Point of Big Boys Mother

MLB
Since MLB opened “the 60 game season” last weekend; the Marlins season is temporarily suspended until Sunday due to the immense covid19 outbreak they have experienced; and, the three games remaining between the Yankees and Phillies have been postponed. The Marlins are currently “stranded” in Philadelphia, with contact tracing happening. "MLB said Tuesday there had been no new positive results involving on-field personnel from any of the other 29 clubs in more than 6,400 tests conducted since Friday." 6400 tests (over a four day period)! Just for baseball players to play baseball!

NBA
One LA Clippers numnut, is given permission to leave the “bubble,” to go to a funeral in Atlanta, then decides to go to a “gentleman’s club” for dinner. Really? Moron or Idiot? Now quarantined for 10 days - wonder how his team mates feel? Surely, his contract includes a penalty clause for being stupid! Gotta love social media for situations like this!

NFL
Players are beginning to opt out – the first to opt-out, Chiefs Guard, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. A practicing physician in Canada and the only medical school graduate in the NFL, currently. He states, "I cannot allow myself to potentially transmit the virus in our communities simply to play the sport that I love. If I am to take risks, I will do it caring for patients." Currently, there are six players with the Patriots who have opted-out from play; I guess since Brady is now with the Bucs, and he was able to convince the Gronk out of retirement – what’s left in NE?

I enjoy sports, and pro sports, are a business. But, when do you say Uncle? I mean, the Dodgers are allowing fans to pay $149 to have a cardboard cut-out of their dog, placed in a section of the stadium, to cheer on the team. Considering there are no real people, at least "man's best friend," will be there to cheer on the team.


Where are the priorities?
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