[NSR] Corona Virus.
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Ossessionato
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Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:13 am quote
... few flocks will remain ...
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:33 am quote
Fudmucker wrote:
The whole smoking ban was motivated by a Minister who alleged that by banning smoking, she would force 8 million smokers to quit. The idea was put forward that smokers would suffer more serious lung complications and by forcing them to stop, she could release 4000 ICU beds to care for COVID patients.
Less than 500k smokers quit.
The cigarette supply went underground and black market suppliers got rich, supplying cigarettes that did not meet the government standards on tar and nicotine. Thousand of jobs in the manufacture, distribution and retailing of tobacco products were lost.

Around 1B Euro in taxes was also lost.

The ban on the sale, transportation and public consumption of alcohol was based on reducing trauma department load from accidents, assaults etc due to excessive alcohol consumption. The ban came at harvest time for the wine industry here and much of the harvest was wasted. Pickers lost seasonal work opportunities and the distribution employment opportunities were also lost.

Around 5B Euro in excise duty and taxes was also lost.

The tourism sector of South Africa's economy has been devastated by restrictions on travel, both internal and international. It is estimated that over 3M jobs have been lost since the beginning of April.

The President bravely announced the lifting of restrictions in order to get the economy back on track, to limit the further loss of State income and to hopefully stop current litigation for damages caused by the restrictions on a number of industries.
Sorry to hear about how poorly this was handled by your gov't and how much revenue was lost. I have more than a few South African friends/associates so have followed it a little. The smoking thing was absolutely absurd and of course it is going to go underground. So a massive loss in revenue and little benefit to the people of South Africa as a whole. Wine not being harvested is another massive hit to the economy and all this at a time when revenue is badly needed to help in the costs related to covid. Mind you corruption has been a problem there for a long time as has poor government. Hopefully in some ways this has been a wake up call.
Hooked
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Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:05 am quote
Harbinger wrote:
jimc wrote:
Dooglas wrote:
monogodo wrote:
Yeah, I can kind of understand the reasoning behind banning smoking, as COVID-19 is a respiratory ailment, and I would think that smoking would make one more susceptible to infection (using logic here, not medical/biological knowledge).
I think you are correct in your logic. The problem is that the individual would need to have stop smoking 5 years ago, not 5 days ago, for that to do much good regarding respiratory infections.
It's to stop the culture of sharing smokes, especially weed mixed in with the tobacco - as well as the allegation that the minister involved is a rabid anti-smoker.
That was exactly the motivation behind it. We may have not have an issue with sharing smokes here but our homeless here as they do most places look for discarded cigarettes and pick them up off the ground.
I imagine it also would reduce the risk of unmasked exposure, since one would have to remove their mask to smoke.

At least we'd be able to see where their breath is by following the smoke.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:30 am quote
We're back to Stage 1 or whatever in our state, limited gatherings, etc. Someone this morning was pondering if masking was helping, and I replied that considering the number of unmasked people you see in stores, etc, and imagining the numbers gathering privately without precautions, it's hard to tell.

I'd read that two communities in nearby Iowa are at the highest rates IN THE WORLD right now.

Meanwhile, it seems that a high-level government advisor is recommending looking to herd immunity as the solution.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:17 am quote
fledermaus wrote:
We're back to Stage 1 or whatever in our state, limited gatherings, etc. Someone this morning was pondering if masking was helping, and I replied that considering the number of unmasked people you see in stores, etc, and imagining the numbers gathering privately without precautions, it's hard to tell.

I'd read that two communities in nearby Iowa are at the highest rates IN THE WORLD right now.

Meanwhile, it seems that a high-level government advisor is recommending looking to herd immunity as the solution.
Think you're answering your own questions so to speak. Yes, masks only work if most people wear them AND take it seriously. It has worked elsewhere to keep levels down and seems to be doing the job here. We've been in phase 3 for a while now and so far seem to be doing OK.

Herd immunity will not be a thing until enough people are vaccinated, the science has been done. Natural herd immunity is possible but would take a LONG time and a heavy toll would need to be paid.
Ossessionato
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Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:57 am quote
... so what do we do ..?
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:48 pm quote
fledermaus wrote:
We're back to Stage 1 or whatever in our state, limited gatherings, etc. Someone this morning was pondering if masking was helping, and I replied that considering the number of unmasked people you see in stores, etc, and imagining the numbers gathering privately without precautions, it's hard to tell.

I'd read that two communities in nearby Iowa are at the highest rates IN THE WORLD right now.

Meanwhile, it seems that a high-level government advisor is recommending looking to herd immunity as the solution.
Oh man, you weren't kidding... of course I knew you weren't but still... Get those groceries and stay indoors if you're in Iowa.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/politics/iowa-task-force-report-coronavirus/index.html
Addicted
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Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:20 pm quote
And in small town central Illinois the school is now doing remote learning, if you do not and cannot afford internet..... I expected it to be mid to late September before our school shut down... plenty of Not happy parents in plant once again.
And all the sanitation stuff is Not agreeable with my lungs. And my Dr. just ordered more bloodwork, chasing my short of breath, lungs hate me,ya, tired all/most of the time but we have been working a lot of 6 day weeks since last fall.
No wonder I donít have enough play time for 3 scooters..
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:38 pm quote
maggiegirl wrote:
And in small town central Illinois the school is now doing remote learning, if you do not and cannot afford internet..... I expected it to be mid to late September before our school shut down... plenty of Not happy parents in plant once again.
And all the sanitation stuff is Not agreeable with my lungs. And my Dr. just ordered more bloodwork, chasing my short of breath, lungs hate me,ya, tired all/most of the time but we have been working a lot of 6 day weeks since last fall.
No wonder I donít have enough play time for 3 scooters..
Really sorry you are dealing with this. It did not have to be this way but just saying that is a dangerous road to go down. Try and take care of yourself and I do feel for you and everyone you work with. This will be over one day but you need to do all you can to be around to see that day, take care of yourself.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:25 pm quote
An update from paradise in the South Pacific.

Our one mystery case has spawned into 146 cases. Still no idea how it arrived into the country. About 5-10 new cases per day, mostly within the Auckland pacific islander community.

Auckland is out of lockdown, masks now mandatory on public transport with about 99% compliance. We are still hopeful that we can beat this again.
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:12 am quote
I don't think NZ is beating COVID... you guys are successfully avoiding it on your beautiful island.
If you ever normalize international travel again it will be back with a vengeance.
A 100% national immunization campaign would be the only way to beat it.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:59 am quote
Fudmucker wrote:
I don't think NZ is beating COVID... you guys are successfully avoiding it on your beautiful island.
If you ever normalize international travel again it will be back with a vengeance.
A 100% national immunization campaign would be the only way to beat it.
Totally agree. Being a small Island nation is a massive benefit here but still they have done a good job. We are doing ok or great depending on your perspective. What is scary is we have no physical barrier and our biggest trading partner and neighbor is really not doing well and itís not even a second wave to worry about there as the first one never stopped. Thatís not politics thatís just fact.
Moderaptor
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:29 am quote
Being an 'island' isn't always a benefit, even if it means no Covid cases. Point Roberts in the US is having a hard time.

(possible paywall)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/us/coronavirus-point-roberts-washington-canada.html
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:06 am quote
jimc wrote:
Being an 'island' isn't always a benefit, even if it means no Covid cases. Point Roberts in the US is having a hard time.
Interesting article. Strange the writer didn't mention that it is easy to travel from Pt. Roberts to the US mainland by boat with no border issues. A high proportion of those living in Pt. Roberts do own a boat for obvious reasons. But yes, this would be a bad time for those trying to run a US shipping service for Canadian nationals.
Ossessionato
Yamaha Tricity 155 Urban 2019 - MV Agusta 125 RS 1956 - Yamaha Majesty 250 DX 1998
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:39 am quote
What did the virus do to us? Are we wild again? Did we get closer or away?
Hooked
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:05 pm quote
maggiegirl wrote:
And in small town central Illinois the school is now doing remote learning, if you do not and cannot afford internet..... I expected it to be mid to late September before our school shut down... plenty of Not happy parents in plant once again
Interesting. I was told by my Indiana pals that school is back in session in "real life". Wonder how long that's going to last. Here in SoCal, I've been told by teachers, off the record, they have only planned for returning to school AFTER Xmas, not any earlier, no matter what the state says.

Us parents have already mentally readied ourselves on that date, and prepared our wallets accordingly as well.
Thunder Thief
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:43 pm quote
tonyc wrote:
Interesting. I was told by my Indiana pals that school is back in session in "real life". Wonder how long that's going to last. Here in SoCal, I've been told by teachers, off the record, they have only planned for returning to school AFTER Xmas, not any earlier, no matter what the state says.

Us parents have already mentally readied ourselves on that date, and prepared our wallets accordingly as well.
Well a specific University near me has already dismissed the students to go back home and do an online format. I heard several complaints about how college students just don't care and want to hang out or party. I had a laugh. This is common knowledge and has been happening since teenagers can teenage. Full blame should be put on the administrators and decision-makers who decided that bringing students back. There is no normal anymore. Forever on a different path now, it is time we adjust and figures it out, and quit pretending it is just a minor inconvenience that will blow away in the breeze when it's time.

Side note: All I keep thinking about is how many wasted hours, days, years of people's lives were spent on driving to an office and back, through traffic, just to do a job that is very evident can be worked at home. It is a rather ridiculous practice when you think about the actual logistics of commuting and the amount of time people spend doing it.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:55 pm quote
Has anyone seen any reliable data correlating mask wearing and infection rates? I see such contradictory information but most of it's anecdotal. It feels strongly like "we don't know but it can't hurt" around here.
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:04 pm quote
lomunchi wrote:
Has anyone seen any reliable data correlating mask wearing and infection rates? I see such contradictory information but most of it's anecdotal. It feels strongly like "we don't know but it can't hurt" around here.
I just pulled up this and TBH could pull up a lot more but fail to see the point. All you really need to do is look at other countries and territories with a similar population density that did call for masks to be worn. If not the masks and social distancing what else could it be? Yes upticks happy but even bad outbreaks can be measured in the hundreds with testing being readily available. The other thing to look at is deaths YoY .

It just makes sense! It's a respiratory disease passed along by droplets, doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out.

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:36 pm quote
lomunchi wrote:
Has anyone seen any reliable data correlating mask wearing and infection rates? I see such contradictory information but most of it's anecdotal. It feels strongly like "we don't know but it can't hurt" around here.
Wow.

Just wow.

That you even have to ask that.

FFS, if you are infectious (and the odds are you won't know this at the time) then wearing a mask will stop *your* droplets blasting around you.

One wears a mask to protect others, NOT necessarily to protect yourself as they're not so efficient at that.
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:53 pm quote
lomunchi wrote:
Has anyone seen any reliable data...
Whatever you're looking for you can find here...



FB_IMG_1597591554153.jpg

Ossessionato
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:00 pm quote
Many of us predicted this from Sturgis. This is required reading for lomunchi...

States Report Coronavirus Cases Linked To Sturgis, S.D., Motorcycle Rally
Quote:
More than two weeks after nearly half a million bikers flocked to South Dakota, the tally of coronavirus infections traced back to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally has surpassed 260, an estimate that is growing steadily as more states report cases, with the first known COVID-19 death of an attendee reported in Minnesota.

At least twelve states have turned up cases linked to the 10-day event.

The greatest share of cases so far have emerged in the rally's home state, South Dakota, which has registered more than 100 cases so far.

A Minnesota man in his 60s who went to the rally was later hospitalized for COVID-19 and died earlier this week, said Kris Ehresmann head of infectious disease for the Minnesota Department of Health.
I predict the number of infections traced to Sturgis and other events, like the 1500-person event at the White House last week (where VERY few people wore masks and they sat side-by side with no physical distancing for hours!) will grow.

Wash your hands and wear a mask. Be safe. Miguel
Ossessionato
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:52 pm quote
Conspiracy theory.
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Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:31 pm quote
Harbinger wrote:
lomunchi wrote:
Has anyone seen any reliable data correlating mask wearing and infection rates? I see such contradictory information but most of it's anecdotal. It feels strongly like "we don't know but it can't hurt" around here.
I just pulled up this and TBH could pull up a lot more but fail to see the point. All you really need to do is look at other countries and territories with a similar population density that did call for masks to be worn. If not the masks and social distancing what else could it be? Yes upticks happy but even bad outbreaks can be measured in the hundreds with testing being readily available. The other thing to look at is deaths YoY .

It just makes sense! It's a respiratory disease passed along by droplets, doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out.

The complications from COVID are not pulmonary - they are hematological.
For reasons still under research, the immune system in some people responds to the virus in a manner that forms blood clots in microscopic blood vessels and so the dangers of stroke and other organ failure increases.

Wearing masks is to prevent infecting others.

I have noticed a worrying current trend in that many masks are now being sold in my area are fitted with a flapper valve 'to ease breathing', which seems and advantage as people wear their masks for longer without fiddling with the mask. The trouble is that the valve relieves pressure when breathing OUT so the infectious sputum particles are released outwards and not trapped in the fabric. Maintain greater distance from persons wearing such masks.

I prefer the comfort of a loose, plain cloth mask that fits snugly across the bridge of the nose and drapes down to the chest as a curtain, screening the face from one side of the neck to the other. This allows more comfortable breathing, both in and out and provides a large fabric area to filter both incoming and outgoing molecules. This also prevents fogging up of spectacles as the breath vapour can escape downwards.
Ossessionato
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Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:38 am quote
In one case or another we are doomed.
Resistance is useless, we will be assimilated into Covid.
And that's not so much to say ...
Molto Verboso
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Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:19 am quote
Attila wrote:
In one case or another we are doomed.
Resistance is useless, we will be assimilated into Covid.
And that's not so much to say ...
No, we're not doomed. We just have to stay alive until there's a vaccine and it's distributed widely.

By the end of the year, we should have something that's at least partially effective and not immediately dangerous. At that point, it won't be known if it's more than partially effective, or if there are long-term hazards. It'll be good enough for use by high-risk essential workers (medics, etc.) since their risks from CoVID-19 would outweigh the risks from the vaccine. Probably should be enough made to cover those groups by March 2021.

I'd guess that a proven safe and effective vaccine won't be ready until the middle of 2021, and it'll be at least until the end of that year before it's available to the general public in the way flu vaccines are.

So, about a year and a half to go before we're back to normal. Just have to get there in one piece first.

In the meantime, we (in the US, probably other places as well) need to do a complete shutdown for at least one infection cycle (a month, maybe two) and establish a national test/trace/isolation program to catch and contain outbreaks. We should have done it months ago.
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Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:29 am quote
Rusty J wrote:
By the end of the year, we should have something that's at least partially effective and not immediately dangerous.
Like Thalidomide wasn't immediately dangerous?
Ossessionato
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Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:12 am quote
There are other things you can die of, with Covid we no longer talk about AIDS but there is.
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Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:59 am quote
Attila wrote:
There are other things you can die of, with Covid we no longer talk about AIDS but there is.
AIDS is no longer the death sentence it once was and while it is tragic the method of transmission more avoidable. COVID and AIDS is not really an apt comparison.
Addicted
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Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:00 am quote
Fudmucker wrote:
many masks are now being sold in my area are fitted with a flapper valve 'to ease breathing'
Many of the surgical-style mask crowd are playing the social optics game . . while others are enhancing the effectiveness of that style mask!
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:35 am quote
Fudmucker wrote:
I have noticed a worrying current trend in that many masks are now being sold in my area are fitted with a flapper valve 'to ease breathing', which seems and advantage as people wear their masks for longer without fiddling with the mask.
My go-to work mask has a valve. It's an N-95 that my wife gave me early on. I thought about the valve issue, but there's also an inner fabric layer as well as a replaceable carbon filter thingy between me and the valve, so I consider it acceptable. Considering the number of people I encounter with poor mask designs and/or their nose hanging out, I'm doing pretty good. Could tape over the valve as well, for that matter...
Veni, Vidi, Posti
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Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:42 am quote
fledermaus wrote:
Fudmucker wrote:
I have noticed a worrying current trend in that many masks are now being sold in my area are fitted with a flapper valve 'to ease breathing', which seems and advantage as people wear their masks for longer without fiddling with the mask.
My go-to work mask has a valve. It's an N-95 that my wife gave me early on. I thought about the valve issue, but there's also an inner fabric layer as well as a replaceable carbon filter thingy between me and the valve, so I consider it acceptable. Considering the number of people I encounter with poor mask designs and/or their nose hanging out, I'm doing pretty good. Could tape over the valve as well, for that matter...
The honker hanging out thing is a big pet peeve of mine. I hate wearing a mask but do it as it is does make sense and I wear it properly. If you do not want to wear a mask, don't go in to public spaces! Easy enough to get literally everything delivered to your door.
Ossessionato
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Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:10 am quote
https://iltirreno.gelocal.it/pontedera/cronaca/2020/09/04/news/operaio-della-piaggio-positivo-al-covid-1.39266914

PONTEDERA. There is a case of positivity at Covid within the Piaggio di Pontedera. The news emerged on 3 September, through a note from the general Valdera base union, but it dates back to eleven days ago, on the day of returning to work after the summer break.

The coronavirus case in the plant has been confirmed with the addition of three other workers placed in quarantine because they came into contact, in close proximity and without masks, with the colleague infected by Covid. According to what has been learned, the group would have come into contact in the area reserved for smokers. While the workers' department colleagues found positive for Covid, they would not have been quarantined due to the particular working conditions in which they operate.


In fact, it is a question of employees whose duties are carried out at a distance. And the use of personal protective equipment during their stay in the ward would have advised the healthcare staff who handled the case to avoid quarantine in the ward in question.

According to the reconstruction, the Piaggio employee would still have worked for a maximum of an hour and a half on the day of returning to the factory. Even before stamping the card after the holidays, he accused a malaise which then led him to report his state of health to the managers of the production area in which he operates. From here the checks by the competent doctor and the subsequent swab to detect traces of coronavirus were triggered. And upon positive feedback, the ASL epidemiological investigation was launched to understand how many workers were in danger of being infected and the relative quarantines to be defined. The low number of workers to whom forced isolation has been imposed gives good hope for a circumscription of the case within a factory with over three thousand employees and which concerns a leading production such as scooters and industrial vehicles of a world-class company.
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Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:33 pm quote
Thanks for the heads-up Attila - I hope only a very few workers caught it, and it stays contained.
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Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:18 pm quote
Two new cases in the community today.

Thought this was a great photo...

covid.jpg

Molto Verboso
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Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:41 pm quote
znomit wrote:
Rusty J wrote:
By the end of the year, we should have something that's at least partially effective and not immediately dangerous.
Like Thalidomide wasn't immediately dangerous?
It's a possibility, but in fairness not a likely one. Obviously, it's something we can't know for certain until it's tested in humans widely enough that the adverse effects show up, and in this particular case, several months afterwards.

But that's kind of the point. It'll be a while before we can be confident of long-term safety.
Ossessionato
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Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:52 pm quote
What a cool ... The choice is between dying randomly or doing it based on a statistic, great way to die.
Molto Verboso
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Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:23 am quote
Attila wrote:
What a coolo...
FTFY.
Ossessionato
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Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:43 am quote
Sledge wrote:
Attila wrote:
What a coolo...
FTFY.
It is all part of an overall design.
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Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:58 pm quote
Harbinger wrote:
Attila wrote:
There are other things you can die of, with Covid we no longer talk about AIDS but there is.
AIDS is no longer the death sentence it once was and while it is tragic the method of transmission more avoidable. COVID and AIDS is not really an apt comparison.
I beg to differ, a friend is a doctor in the infectious ward in my city hospital and tells me that due to the lockdown, the cases of other infectious diseases had drastically reduced but the recovery was worse .... Not only did they resumed but also increased!
So, as you see, people just thinking about covid neglect precautions for other diseases, it seems like they can't think they have more than one disease at a time ... curious.
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