Modern Vespa

I thought it might be interesting for us to make some speculative predictions of what we might look forward to in the future. Here's a few of mine.

-A four stroke PX from Piaggio. Scootering Magazine (#247) speculated on this recently. The PX is 30 years old this year and there are rumors that Piaggio will soon announce something special for the PX. I still believe that there is a market for vintage scoots whether it turns out to be a vintage looking PX with a LEADER CVT or a new Piaggio PX body designed to accommodate the Bajaj engineered manual four stroke. Personally, I believe that the later is more likely since according to Scootering Magazine Piaggio may be bringing back a 'classic' version of the APE manufactured in India. Piaggio appears to be again wanting to subcontract with some parts now being made in China, so I think its possible that Bajaj or LML might fill a role somewhere along the way.

-The Bajaj designed four stroke manual will find its way into other scooters besides the Legend and the Chetak. Dunno who exactly but it would be a shame for all of that recent engineering invested to not be allowed to mature to its potential. The latest issue of American Scooterist (#51) has a well written article by Dave McCabe titled "Farewell, Chetak" about how the market forces in India resulted in Bajaj Auto getting out of the scooter business. But as we all know market forces keep changing and to quote Dave McCabe, "One hopes that Bajaj Auto or LML will at least license production to a smaller factory."

-China scoots are not only here to stay but may experience a big boost in acceptance when they release a vintage Piaggio copy. I think its very possible that Philip McCaleb or someone as dynamic as him will contract with a Chinese company to produce an inexpensive all metal body scoot of vintage Piaggio design. Think LML/Stella, TnG/Scomadi, Diamo/Italjet but with a more direct vintage Piaggio connection. As in the previously mentioned reincarnations there may be bumps early in the development but it will happen...hopefully before they shoot down all the satellites that broadcast our favorite TV programs.

All interesting and sorta-possible.

If LML doesn't get going again, SOMEONE will take that market back over. There have been rumors of Piaggio (or Genuine) buying LML, but I doubt it. Piaggio has too much going on to care about geared scooters. Bajaj was making 70s-Vespa-Style scooters (Pre-p-series) until about 2005, so I've always wondered why they didn't figure out a way to put their 4-stroke geared engines in those. They unceremoniously dumped the Chetak last year, so I'm betting they'll come out with some big vintage-y "rebirth of the Chetak" and pretend that was their plan all along.

Even if that happens, though, Bajaj seems pretty unlikely to come back to the US, and the brand name still doesn't mean much here, so a Genuine/LML-esque rebranding deal would seem more likely.

I predict the Blur 200 will be much more successful than the 150, even though I love the 150.

I keep thinking the same thing about China, but they're really still pretty abysmal. I predict it's going to get worse before it gets better, because all the legit companies (and many new companies) are signing deals there, and I think many of them are going to get burned by Chinese quality and ethics, no matter how much effort and money they put into supervision and quality control. But yes, someday in the near future, Chinese scooters will improve and dominate the market. It will take an original idea and real dedication to quality, and sooner or later a Chinese company will be capable of that, ha.

Vectrix and other (good) electric scooters will take a while to catch on, but they will. Again, they just have to rise above the stigma of all the crappy chinese electric scooters out there, but they will, they seem to be pretty good bikes and are getting a lot of attention.

Hyosung will grow, they seem to have a good product, and their heads in the right place. Their only problem is that they have their own import company as well as two other US importers, that situation will be confusing. The new italjet 650 is actually a hyosung marked up to double the price, yet it will probably outsell the hyosungs. sad.

I'm guessing Kinetic won't bother with the US now, which is too bad, I was looking forward to them coming over, but Italjet and Diamo got in the way, and will probably end up charging way more for similar (or the same) bikes Kinetic would have sold here.

A fuel cell powered GS 150 styled with disc brakes Vespa -put my name down now!!!
All interesting thoughts people.

And where is the 'new' lammy in all of this? Is that one dead?

I sure as Hell hope not! I'll sell my Stella to get a CVT Lammy!

There are people who shoehorn LEADER150s into Lammy frames, in fact a whole company does that.

Someone even used one like that on the Cannonball Run.

I've seen those and that may be an option in my future. I really like the look of the new L1 (or whatever they are called) prototypes.

They look pretty spiff but from what I hear you have to be a bow legged giant to ride one.

I am neither bow legged nor giant. Sucks to be me.

2010: i can go into ANY boutique and get an air filter.

-Mel

I assume the scooter you''re referring to was the one Chopper rode on the 2004 Cannonball, right? Just to be clear, that particular scooter was not one produced by that company that shoehorns LEADER150s into Lammys. That one was the product of Mike Heytens (AKA MikeH on the ScooterBBS) who welded up a subframe for the LEADER from angle steel stock in his garage and mounted that in Chopper's Frankenbretta.

I was hoping that in the future the President and Members of Congress will pass the anti big ass car law.

This will start the destruction of all SUV's and any car that gets less than 30 miles per gallon.

Any purchase of a car that gets under 40 miles per gallon will have an extra earth tax of 100,000.00 dollors per year.

people will be forced into more smaller and more modern fuel saver cars. Scooters will become the main transportation in major cities.

Many cars will be dumped in the ocean to form new reef's for all kinds of sea life...

The rumors of LML's return just won't go away and the word on several forums is that Stella will be back in showrooms by October, including California! So far its looking like a California compliant catalyzed two stroke. Haven't heard anything new in regards to Piaggio's big plans for the PX. Both Bajaj and Piaggio have long been talking about expanding production into Brazil. Expect a lot more posts on Modern Vespa from Brazil when they do. Retro styled vehicles of all kinds only seem to be gaining popularity and market shares. Its only natural to think that the Chinese would want to tap into this market as well.

I'm hoping to see great strides in the electric scooter market. The Vectrix looks promising, but not quite there yet. When the electrics meet my needs (don't shoot me) but I will be selling my Vespa's. I would also like to see some hybrid scooters like the Toyota Prius set-up.

You are not going to like my predictions. Unless I resorted to wishful thinking instead of really trying to realistically predict what will happen in the next several years in the transportation industry. Realistic stuff is not pretty. First let me state one of my grave concerns. The rules are made by politicians. We live in a technological society, but the majority of our politicians are not trained in technical disciplines. Rather, most politicos are skilled in the law. This means we can expect more of the type of nonsense that we saw from Congress in the past few weeks. Raising the Cafe limits, funds for ethanol production, subsidies for hydrogen power, and hybrid development. All of which are wrong headed and will not solve the fundamental problems.

While everyone who participates in this forum understands that a significant advantage could be derived if scootering were to become more widespread, there is no likelihood that such an outcome is to be expected. If Congress were seriously interested in addressing the core issues of over consumption and over dependance on foreign oil, they would have put us on strict diet. How could that be done? Simple. Ration cards. That would drive the market for more fuel efficient options and scooter sales would go up. Total oil consumption would be controlled. Stupid ideas would quickly be abandoned.

Do I predict this sane approach? No. Why? Because politicians are driven by a desire to remain in office and the majority of the people in this country would be outraged if they had to make due with less gas. So we will pour billions into research on hydrogen fuels even though the Hindenburg has already taught us that this is not a safe option. We will continue to pollute the planet making very damaging batteries, and disposing of same. We will continue to allow the production of insanely oversized vehicles. Consider that a mid-fifties behemoth of a car is dwarfed by the middle range SUVs of today. Ford has sold over 4 times as many F150 pickup trucks as Toyota has Prius cars since that model was introduced (although the Prius might be even more environmentally damaging than the trucks). This insanity is happening daily right now. High gas prices is no deterent to stupidity. We haven't learned a damn thing.

Every time I fill my tank I wonder how much of my money is finding its way into the hands of our enemies. And I ride my Vespa more and more and more. Congress could do a lot to help, but it will not happen and we will continue on our crazy path to self destruction.

Regards,

Bill

The two words oil execs hate most...

Purdue University scientists recently began using an alloy of Aluminum and Gallium to split water into H2 gas and O2 gas.

Normally, Aluminum reacts to atmospheric O2 to form a layer of oxidation on the surface and that stops further oxidation from occurring (aluminum won't rust like Iron alloys do). This prevents chemical reaction from other oxygen species (like H2O).

Add Gallium... just one period down from aluminum on the periodic table meaning it has similar reactivity and characteristics, (they are in the sam family). But... gallium is a liquid at room temperatures like mercury is. When alloyed with aluminum, the aluminum will oxidize (give up electrons - usually 3) to atmospheric oxygen or any other oxidizing agent like water (H2O).

The reaction produces H2 gas. The aluminum is oxydized to aluminum oxide and can be "recycled" or reduced to be used again. The gallium does nothing chemically, just influences the aluminum so it reacts.

The following website gives the details:
http://www.physorg.com/news98556080.html

maybe we are finally on to something big

I predict nuclear power plants, lots of them.

Charging clean compact batteries......lots of them.

Dependable, light weight 'modern' scooters run on electric power......lots & lots of them....Cars too....

Bigger vehicles will be run on H2 and fuel cells.

The US made a HUGE mistake when we ran in fear from nuclear tech....

The future belongs not to Ludites.

IMHO

R

8)

da waste boss da waste.....run faster......IMNSHO.....

The French have been using nuclear plants for quite some time. It is my understanding that they "reuse" the waste uranium, but I don't know exactly how.

The US Navy has used small nuclear power plants for nearly 50 years. I don't want to rule out nuclear power yet... it does need more development though.

I just hope that whatever alternatives we use, we consider the size of the footprint we leave and at what cost.

I predict there will be solutions for the waste problems. Waste represents a 'power source', no?

These solutions will not be found by avoiding, they will be found by engaging the future.

Oil production & consumption is 'soiling' our nest.

I prefer to be optimistic about the ability of humans to solve the tough problems. It was just 62 years ago most of human kind first heard of 'nuclear'.

"Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal."
- Henry Ford

R

8)

edited for content....

Trust science... real science scrutinized and repeatedly tested by other scientists for many years...

belief's are for the realm of religion and politics and tend to look for self-validation and "proofs".

Science proceeds by trying to DISprove a hypothesis, NOT prove it. That removes much of the personal bias we inherently have as humans.

Science never pretends to know all the answers, it just increases in understanding through observations, inference, and experimentation...

Actually, the Hindenberg explosion was a combination of faulty shielding against static electricity build-up and the fact that the whole damn blimp was painted with powdered aluminum oxide, which is *EXTREMELY* flammable. Yes, the hydrogen ignited, but the skin of the blimp burned faster. Hydrogen is a relatively safe fuel. The problem is that as currently produced, its production requires more electric input than its combustion generates, and that electricity is usually generated from fossil fuels.

As for fuel economy, I live in a large city, so I use my bicycle for most trips less than 9-10 miles one way, the scoot for longer trips when time and weather permit, and the car a few times a month when carrying loads or when I need to get on the highway for long distances, or when it's too nasty out to scoot and too far to bike.

I predict Piaggio USA will continue to piss me off as it walks a bizarre line of completely trying to celebrate it's own history of making timeless, classic vehicles while at the same time completely ignoring it's fanbase and it's vintage enthusiasts unless it's for a photo op or event they can take advantage of for monetary gain. It will pull some similar shenanigan like they did in europe when they basically took over and renamed EuroVespa - an event organized by vespa enthusiasts for the last umpteen years and having LITTLE involvement from Piaggio, to "Vespa World Days", and denied vendors the right to sell any other brand name product ( which they were always able to do).

I predict the scooter boom will slow, and the fairweather scooterists will unload their bikes in favor of a 4-wheeler or some other recreational vehicle that's the fad de jour.

I predict i will need a bigger garage, and will likely have to put an extension off the back, because i'll continue to aquire more and more bikes, and likely weirder ones that are larger and more cumbersome.

I predict more clubs will fold ( like we've witnessed already this year ), either due to the core organizers moving to other places, or the whole vintage vs. modern schism segmenting the crowd into the people who are more preservationists versus the people who just want to ride long distances and not fret about their bike.

I predict i will be aroused by a shampoo commercial.

-Eric

this, i do not doubt.

sicko.

I'm a very bad wolf...

I predict that someone out there will realize there's a market for a four-stroke manual shift bike with vintage styling and start cranking them out. It'll have long, comfortable lines like a Lambretta.

Depending on whether the U.S. dollar collapses, we may see a $1000 scooter built around a Briggs and Stratton engine, that comes complete with insurance.

I predict I will install an LI 150 engine into my moped in place of the crap that's in there, with a suicide shift placed between my legs. It'll have a skull with glowing eyes at the top just like in "Big Trouble In Little China".

Otherwise, what Rover Eric sez.

Wasn't that called a Cushman? Or a Harley Topper? Dude... be my friend... you rule. That's one of my favorite movies...

Yeah, but the new one won't look like shit... Only if you help me find an LI engine later this year. Otherwise, done deal!

I could sell you the one i just took out of my LI150 .... i threw an Indian GP200 in there as the 150 is just too slow to haul around my 230 pound ass.

-Eric

Same thing my buddy did with his Riverside (only he won't sell me the engine!) PM me with the price and shipping costs. I won't be able to buy it for another three or four weeks because of Amerivespa, but if you want to hang onto it for a bit, I'd really appreciate that.

I hadn't planned on selling it anyways.. don't worry - it's not going anywhere.

My former Sensei was in that movie (R.I.P)

Great flick!

Was he the guy with the meat cleavers? Seriously, R.I.P., sorry to hear that.

Bit player, in the elevator when they are drinking the juice and getting amp'd. He's behind Kurt Russel I believe, wearing a turbine and does that finger thing.

Had a heart thing, no one knew until his heart gave out. Sad.

Great flick.

I'm too knew to scootering to attempt a prediction (At this time and attempting to get back on topic)

Actually this forum is not the place to discuss the very complex subject of hydrogen and the difficulties involved in trying to safely handle it. I am an engineer and my profession is the prevention of industrial explosions. I sit on several NFPA Technical Committees involved in explosion prevention and mitigation. Without wanting to get into a big debate in a place where it is not wanted, let me just point out that hydrogen is so volatile that we cannot even establish a reliable lower flammable limit for it. There is a big debate about it with a new standard hanging while we try to sort it out.

Gasoline is a much more forgiving and less volatile fuel. Far, far safer. The generation of hydrogen in an energy and cost effective manner in no way solves the problem of the safe storage, distribution, or use of the material. The prospect of a container full of hydrogen inside a vehicle makes my cringe.

I am also a bicycle nut. What do you ride?

Bill

We Need a National Council that includes the BBS.

-Vinny

fingers crossed

I continue to be haunted by this passage from page 496 ([paperback edition) of Collapse by Jared Diamond:
"People in the Third World aspire to First World living standards. They develop that aspiration through watching television, seeing advertisements for the First World consumer products sold in their countries, and observing First World visitors to their countries. Even in the most remote villages and refugee camps today, people know about the outside world. Third World citizens are encouraged in that aspiration by First World and United Nations development agencies, which hold out to them the prospect of achieving their dream if they will only adopt the right policies, like balancing their national budgets, investing in education and infrastructure and, and so on.

But no one in First World governments is willing to acknowledge the dream's impossibility: the unsustainability of a world in which the Third World's large population were to reach and maintain current First World living standards. It is impossible for the First World to resolve that dilemma by blocking the Third World's efforts to catch up: South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mauritius have already succeeded or are close to success; China and India are progressing rapidly by their own efforts; and the 15 rich Western European countries making up the European Union have just extended Union membership to 10 poorer countries of Eastern Europe, in effect thereby pledging to help those 10 countries catch up. Even if the human populations of the Third World did no exist, it would be impossible for the First World alone to maintain its present course, because it is not in a steady state but is depleting its own resources as well as those imported from the Third World. At present, it is untenable politically for First World leaders to propose to their own citizens that they lower their living standards, as measured by lower resource consumption and waste production rates. What will happen when it finally dawns on all those people in the Third World that current First World standards are unreachable for them, and that the First World refuses to abandon those standards for itself? Life is full of agonizing choices based on trade-offs, but that's the cruelest trade-off that we shall have to resolve: encouraging and helping people to achieve a higher standard of living, without therby undermining that standard through overstressing global resources." While we saw gobs of scooters in southern Spain where they truly rule the streets, in Paris I was completely surprised to see business men in suits riding the streets on 4 wheel ATVs. And just after our recent move here to San Diego we've already seen several four wheeled vehicles with automobile license plates that would likely have questionable legal status in other states.

Here's a few more predictions:

-Some future political strategist will latch onto the modern vs vintage clash and use it as another meaningless wedge issue to further divide the country. Initially this will result in great concern for several Modern Vespa moderators with at least one of them having a nervous breakdown, but even worse, the clash will unfortunately and horrifically result in this nation's third great Civil War.

-They will eventually do a remake of the 1984 film The Adventures of Buckaroo Banzai Across the 8th Dimension

and it won't be half as good.

-RexGT200 will become an animated TV series popular among children and adults alike spawning a whole new generations of scooterists and ultimately helping to set the stage for civil war.

-Someday San Diego will finally have enough Mexican restarurants to meet the demand.

"When California falls into the ocean, like the mystics and statistics say it will. I predict this hotel will be standing until I pay my bill."
-Waren Zevon

"You're gonna take a walk in the rain
And you're gonna get wet
(I predict)
You're gonna eat a bowl of chow mein
And be hungry real soon
(I predict)
Are my sources correct
(I predict)
They're gonna find the Queen is a man
But that Philip don't care
(I predict)
Lassie will prove that Elvis and her
Had a fleeting affair
(I predict)
Are my sources correct
Are my sources correct
Yes I know they're corect
(I predict)

Men, if you say your prayers
You'll never lose your hair(I predict)

L.A. is safe
Ain't gonna quake
Ain't gonna quake
(I predict)

And somebody's gonna die
But I can't reveal who
Cold beer will cure a cold
Cold beer and pretzels, takes care of cancer
Moscow will march to France
They'll do the Can-Can Dance
Don't worry, it'll work out
Maxim's will throw them out

They're gonna stop Saturday night
So you better have fun now
(I predict)
They're gonna stop having the sun
So you better get tan now

And this song will fade out
And this song will fade out
And this song will fade out
(I predict)"

-Sparks

Re Scooters.... I'm gonna keep riding mine. And when it breaks down I'll find another.