Modern Vespa

And now, maybe there will be one on the moon:

"Check out this working prototype lunar electric motorcycle for NASA's moon exploration"

https://tinyurl.com/yzc2lkna

Here's a question that isn't going to be very popular.

What would happen if EV's just didn't sell well enough to substantiate their manufacture ?

Could happen, but to expand on that a little I have been amazed for years that we manufacture and sell as many automobiles per year as we do. Period.

I've worked in automotive manufacturing since '87. The number of parts we produced was staggering. For instance, we made starter nose cone castings. One tool would run 65 shots per hour. It was a six cavity tool. Running five days a week three shifts that's close to 2.4 million per year and every one of those represents "AN CAR". And we often ran seven days a week. This was one model for one manufacturer. And we were one tiny little shop.

I get that not everyone is me. I've driven my '89 Volvo with 254K miles on it for 13 years now. I almost - I said "almost" - buy into the conspiracy that millions of unsold cars have to go somewhere every year, but people seem to keep buying them.

I'm sure they will sell a lot of EVs. Will they have to adjust their numbers? Probably. But sell they will. I have no idea what their estimated production numbers are.

I've stopped looking for the time being at the Fiat 500e. The used market is crazy right now. Cars that I was seeing at $8k a year ago are $12k. For the same cars. A year later.

I answer you ... Governments are already enormously increasing fuel prices, they will increase vehicle taxes, they will increase everything related to the mechanical maintenance of a vehicle; this is to encourage electric vehicles. In practice we are under siege and the besieged are taken for fatigue and hunger.

I've heard that EVs are a tax on the poor. I know a lot of people who could not afford a new car of any type, so they are dependent on the used market. The used EV market is very limited and will be for a long time. So people with less means will have to resort to ICE vehicles which will become increasingly expensive to own and operate. This will further drive a wedge between the haves and have-nots. Society will collapse under the weight of uprisings and critical resource shortages. And then this guy shows up and we all start singing "New Moon on Monday". I dunno. It's Friday. I've already checked out mentally for the weekend.

My question was more angled at if the push and incentives for people to buy EV's falls on deaf ears what would the manufacturers do with the unsold stock ?

There may be a sect of buyers who might simply refuse to convert no matter how difficult the decision makers make it for them.

Gasoline and Diesel will be available for the next what, 25 years so I guess it could happen.

eh - I just bought a used gasoline car (a SAAB, just to make things even less practical for myself), but if I was in a financial position to buy a truly new car now I would be looking at an EV or at least a hybrid. I'll go easily to "that side" when the time comes.

I honestly think the tipping point will be fleet vehicles. I've mentioned we are making the tail lamps for Amazon's Rivian electric transport vans. If commercial vehicles make the switch to electric I think it will be a big blow to diesel. Gas to follow.

I'm curious to see how that pans out.

I think you misunderstand the purpose of the incentives. The goal is to reach critical mass, a combination of infrastructure (manufacturing, charger networks), technological advancements (chiefly batteries, but there's lots of auxiliary tech involved too) and acceptance by the general population. Once it reaches critical mass, market dynamics will do the rest. It is likely (though not certain) that the market will, on the whole, prefer EVs over gasoline cars, eventually. A bunch of things have to happen first -- costs must come down, range must go up, charging networks must spread -- but that is in fact happening, and that is the point of incentivizing the industry.

Oh no, I get it but my implication was that what if no matter how many incentives and infrastructures you put up and people still refused to buy an EV - because they prefer to drive a vehicle with a conventional engine, what would happen ?

You can lead a horse to water kind of scenario. I think I know the answer to this question but I'm interested in what others think.

There's also something else to consider. EV technology is developing so quickly the price of a three year old car is going to be hard to appraise when the car that's going to replace it is going to be so much better in range and performance it's going to make the traded car redundant. ICE advancements have pretty much flattened out at this stage even if DPF filters never were really perfected.

If you were buying a gas powered car and the Salesman let slip that the engine might need replacing in 8 years or so you'd want to know why. Wouldn't you ?

I'm not against EV's but I'd tread carefully if I was looking at buying one when mass production is still in it's infancy.

... but you can't bring water (the river) to the horse ...

You're interested in what others think in the same way that an arsonist is interested in determining if a building is flammable.

My feeling will be that the conventionally powered vehicles will be simply priced off the road by tariffs at the point of sale or a yearly road tax and possibly on the lubricants used in after sales to encourage people to change.

Of they might just not make them anymore so you don't have a choice.

I'm wondering just how servicing departments are going to regain the revenue when during a service you'll only be checking for tyres, pads, brakes and then plugging the rest in to a computer to test the motors.

Most of the bill during a service is generated by the cost of lubricants on an ICE vehicle.

This is a bit like worrying about the buggy whip makers when the Model T was introduced.

They will adapt, or they will die. Just like every other industry that is superseded by another industry, in the endless cycle of progress.

Knowing how the industry works I can see the servicing cost magically inflating to the point where they match the current costs even if they are doing way way less.

They'll fix it. They fix everything.

Put that way I would say yes, it is possible that it goes this way.

What would happen if a new and much larger surcharge/tax on gasoline were implemented to fund multiple mitigation programs for the adverse health and climate effects of burning gasoline? (what ifs can go in many directions)

Enough of the what-ifs, FFS.

But, what if London is swallowed by the sea?

That's not an If, that's a When! It's sinking at the rate of ~8 inches a century, never mind the effects of any sea-level rise due to climate change.

What if there were no hypothetical questions?

If ... Oops, using the metric system will make the sinking more dramatic.

You don't have to worry. Once global warming becomes officially accepted the US can just switch to Celsius, That will immediately drop the average temperature from 54 to 12 degrees, restoring the polar caps and putting food on the table of the starving families of Ushanka salesmen all over the globe.

... and the vehicles will go in the right lane ...

Not a scooter, I realize, but still.

It reminds me of something I've seen before ...

Yes, but the Isetta had far more character

I've always found sympathy towards Renault Twizy (later re-badget also as Nissan NMC), but during the launch at 2012 it was waayyyy ahead of the electrification curve and markets.

Actually not that far from the electric scooter topic, as top speed of the smallest Twizy model was very slow and even side doors were optional😉

When Twizy was new and trendy, I've witnessed an ultra-trendy young couple stepping into one at the city center of Turin, Italy. He opened the access to the back seat for her, then stepped elegantly in and silently, but efficiently they glided away.

I had to look around to see where the cameras for a commercial were located... That was really making electrification look cool, in the Vespa advert style.

Finally, a decent looking disability scooter...

I was hunting down information on the Twizy when I stumbled on the Microlino. The Twizy seems like a really great European city car.

I thought about it ...
But then an electric Smart is better.

It doesn't haul more than a scooter, nor does it have better weather protection. It's much wider than a scooter and parking is a problem or costly. A scooter is much better in the city and a car is much better overland.

But it does have four wheels, and there are lots of people (a majority, I would guess) who can't or won't consider riding on two.

I think in France you don't have to have a full licence to drive a Twizy.

It's perfect to leave in the station car park.

It looks like it has several times the cargo volume of the top box on my GTS and it certainly does have better weather protection than any of my scooters. I'll give you the other points.

Sadly the Renault Twizy is no longer available to buy new in the UK.

Used examples are available on Ebay for around £10,000.

If you leave it in the parking lot of the Latina station on your return you will not even find the footprint.

I'm pretty certain what killed the Twizy in the UK were it's limited range ( 50 miles ) and the fact that so many people, because of their narrow minds would point and laugh so much that by the end of the week your soul would be crushed.

10 out of 10 for effort though.

Electric APE, yes please!


https://www.autoevolution.com/news/piaggio-teams-up-with-oil-and-gas-giant-to-speed-up-the-micromobility-revolution-172525.html