dru_ wrote:
JLB wrote:
I'd love to walk you through the math.
I can buy a nice used SUV for less than $5,000. I can then take the $6,000 difference between a Vectrix price, plus the $3,000 Vectrix subsidy ($9,000) and buy 750 gallons of fuel (per year), at $2.15 cents per gallon ($1,612) for a total of 5 1/2 years of free fuel.
If I carry a passenger, the my effective fuel cost per passenger is cut in half. If I carry 5 people my fuel cost per passenger drops even further.
I'm no even factoring depreciation into account, where a 5 year old Vectrix will probably be in the junkyard, whle a Suburban will still be going strong, and worth at least $3k.
I love this argument, I've heard it alot even with regards to my gas powered scooter (as well as my SMART car).
What it doesn't address is wear and tear and mechanical parts, which aren't obscene, but definately effect the cost per mile. Your simplified math is fine, as far as it goes. But then again, use your own numbers against your Vespa, and lo and behold, your SUV analogy is still a better deal.
I didn't buy my Vespa for economy. I bought it as a toy.
dru_ wrote:
When you start factoring in those 'other costs', things suddenly get real murky and a case can be made either way. There is another issue. The SUV engine and platform is at it's absolute worst in this usage. The engine never warms up enough to run efficiently.
Say what? My Suburban runs very efficiently, and the engine warms up just fine.
dru_ wrote:
During starting and stopping, it belches out it's worst toxins in it's highest volumes.
The same could be said about belching particulates on acceleration for any vehicle. That is just how an internal combustion engine works. You always use more energy accelerating a mass than you do maintaining a speed.
dru_ wrote:
The wear and tear of this kind of mileage vastly exceeds the wear and tear of highway mileage. The wear and tear on a 15 year old transmission, tires getting 12-18k miles because of the weight and wear of stop and go, in-town driving.
Again, that is the same for any vehicle.
dru_ wrote:
I understand what you are trying to say, and the point has merit, but at the same time, I know that my6 year old Dodge Durango averages about $1200 in service costs last year, up from the $950 from the year before and $600 the year before. Based upon previous experience I expect the number to plateau to an average of about $2200 per year in maintenance (above expected maintenance of tires, oil, brakes, etc). While this is less than the cost of payments on a new vehicle, it remains a large chunk of change your quickie math does not take into account.
As I pointed out, the replacement cost for just the battery on my E-Bike is 40% of the original purchase price. Assume the battery of the Vectrix is similar, and now compare that with spending 40% of a cost of a new Durango, but 7 years down the line. Face it, the Vectrix will be a throw away vehicle by then.
dru_ wrote:
I think you already know this, so I don't really need to point out all the nit picky details, or the assumption that gas will stay at $2.15 for the next 5 years (it won't).
It may go lower, right?
dru_ wrote:
As for the 5 years to a junkyard, with something like the Vectrix there is probably an equal chance that in 5 years it will be on it's way to collectors item status.
Not likely. In 5 years the battery technology will probably make the Vectrix look like a 486 PC running Windows 98.
JLB wrote:
The price of fuel went up in the 1970s because of OPEC raising prices (by cutting supply. See: Arab Oil Embargo) and because of runaway inflation. Our energy usage had little to do with it.
dru_ wrote:
Does the cause really matter when the end result is the same? low supply, high prices and economic crunch?
Yes, it does matter, because it was not due to "energy mismanagement". It was
an artificial supply shortage created by an Oil Embargo, compounded by high inflation.
We have plenty of oil, and should be drilling for more. We also have 400 years worth of coal that could be converted to liquid fuel using the Fischer-Tropsch process (AKA: coal gasification). There should ever be a shortage of energy in the United states if we would just use our own resources.
JLB wrote:
On the subject of small cars, we didn't build fuel efficient cars in this country because our automakers cannot produce one at a profit while at a $42 per hour labor disadvantage (including health and legacy costs) compared to our non-union competition. We built cars that were larger because those were the only ones that we could make and turn a profit. Blame the UAW for our lack of a viable small car in America. They are building Nissans in Tennessee, Hondas in Ohio, and Toyotas in Texas without Union labor. Their employees are payed well, and they are turning a profit. Go figure.
dru_ wrote:
I don't disagree, but at the same time, attempts to bring viable small car alternatives have struggled to gain traction as well. If the market was there, you can bet that ther product would be as well (which illustrates my point about our spending).
You can thank our highly retrictive laws for the inability of smaller cars like the Fiat Panda, or some of the highly efficient diesel cars from making inroads into America. We had the market last year, but we couldn't get the cars. Just look how long it took for the Smart Car, which I happen to love, to make it in.
JLB wrote:
The simple fact is that if the technology is feasable and profitable, it will be developed to fill the need. See Honda and Toyota in the '70s for an example of technology and market forces filling a need.
dru_ wrote:
Economic theory implies this, however, history shows this is not always the case. In many cases the better technology does not always make it to market, nor even market dominance. Honda and Toyota did fill a need, yet today, they are following the same path the US automakers have. The truly efficient vehicles do not even come to the US market, why? Because we have sent a clear message that we don't want them by buying larger cars, as well as allowed our own government to be pressured by lobbyists into preventing them from making it into this market. Witness the 60 mpg SMART's, Audi's and VW's that Europe can have and meet clean air restrictions equal to ours, while those vehicles are not available here.
I agree, as stated above.
JLB wrote:
To waste tax payer money on an expensive scooter that no sane person would use their own money to buy? If people wanted an electric scooter they would buy one without a broke government having to subsidize 30% of the purchase price, just to get it in the same price range as a loaded Vespa GTS.
dru_ wrote:
You have focused on the tax thing several times, but it is not valid in many states. Though California and Georgia are both states that do offer an incentive. In Georgia's case, the tax break comes in the form of a credit, issued against the purchase price of an electric vehicle (car of motorcycle). That money is not 'costing taxpayers', it is my tax dollars that simply aren't going into the pot, and is still a drop in the bucket compared to the write off for mortgage interest for most homeowners.
Any "credit" is a manipulation of the free market, and the money to pay for that credit has to come from somewhere, in this case from diminished state tax revenue. I'm all for you keeping more of your own money before the government steals it, but I don't think it is good policy to use tax dollars to prop up faled business models that cannot make it without the credit.
dru_ wrote:
Price wise, early adopters *always* pay a premium. This is historical trend. People paid 24-36k for grey market SMART's 5 years ago. How much did it cost to lease a Saturn EV-1? What about the Honda's Fuel Cell trial cars in LA?
That is fine, if they have their own money to burn. Jay Leno has a new hybrid hydrogen fuel cell Honda, but I don't mind if Leno spends his own money on it.
dru_ wrote:
Those of us that are early adopters understand that we are paying a premium to be early adopters. I have never argued otherwise.
It's your money, so I have no problem with that.
JLB wrote:
That is more wasted money down the drain. With oil below $50 a barrel it does not make economic sense to buy an electric vehicle. When oil was above $140 you saw consumers change their behavior without wasting taxpayer funds, and market forces dictated what people wanted to buy. Even with oil that high people would not buy a vehicle that takes 8 hours to recharge and has a 60 mile range for the price of a new Nissan Versa.
dru_ wrote:
Yes, with oil prices down, it may be hard to stomach the expense, but look at the flip side. When prices hit $140 last summer, scooter sales went off the charts. Supply could not meet demand. Dealers had no inventory, nor hopes of getting inventory in a timely manner.
But now oil has fallen back to normal levels, so if the automakers had built nothing but econoboxes, they would have miscalculated doubly.
dru_ wrote:
Automakers found themselves with inventory they could not give away, and as a result they find themselves with entire product lines that are no longer viable in the sales chain.
Not so fast. Ford F-150 sales are up 21% in Canada.
Ford Canada Sees F-150 Sales Up 21%, Truck and SUV Sales Hold Up
March 6, 2009
By Benson Kong
Trucks, crossovers, and SUVs are still holding up strong in Canada, as Ford Canada has once again outdone the Canadian auto industry for the 4th consecutive month. Ford's market share is up again following reports of February's sales total, thanks to trucks and SUVs include the F-150, Escape, and Flex.
http://www.trucktrend.com/features/news/2009/163_news090306_canada_ford_f150_sales/index.htmldru_ wrote:
It takes roughly 5 years for a new car to go from start to the showroom. With that kind of reaction time, the automakers cannot wait to bring product to market until market pressures make it the 'only choice'. I think that is why we are seeing these incentives in place today, there is an understanding that the consumer is going to need a push to embrace alternatives. Including the 'electric first hybrids' which use an internal combustion engine as a generator to suppliment batteries (serial hybrid). Those solutions aren't replacements for todays power plants either, since a small ICE doesn't generate enough power to push an electric motor as fast as the battery systems do, so even on generator, these hybrids will be unable to run at the same speeds as they do in a full charge configuration.
The consumer does not need a push to purchase what they perceive to be in their own best interests. The free market always decides. For all you know, gas may decline further as the recession continues, and then this central planning looking 5 years out will have failed as nobody wants to buy the small cars. If we could eventually get rid of the uAW and get true wage parity with the competition, we will see smaller cars become available again because they will be profitable again.
JLB wrote:
Face it. It's been 40 years, and we still don't have a viable electric vehicle (a vehicle that is not subsidized and sells at a competitive price to a regular car.) after hundreds of billions of dollars in research has been wasted. The future is with designs like the Piaggio hybrid, which does not require $4k to get people interested in buying it.
dru_ wrote:
40 years? keep going. The first electric vehicles date back to the 1830's. The gas powered vehicle did not become ascendant until Ford started selling them for cheap in 1908.
Just speaking of recent history, and government $ thrown at the electric vehicle.
dru_ wrote:
It could be argued that had it not been for Ford's use of the assembly line, that the gas engine would not have gained ascendancy since the electric car topped the sales market in 1899 and 1900.
It could also be argued that the electric vehicle peaked in 1900.
dru_ wrote:
The cheap gas mindset kept electric vehicles out of the market for 50 years until the gas crunches of the late 60's and 70's suddenly ressurected interest in them. Since then, they have stuttered and stopped with every up and down cycle of oil prices. Interestingly, if you look at scooter and motorcycle sales, they have followed much the same pattern in recent (1950+) history.
I would argue that the inherent disadvantages of an electric vehicle have doomed it, not gas prices. I will never buy a vehicle that only has a 60 mile range.
dru_ wrote:
But all of this discussion really helps support my contention that we have a choice. Embrace alternatives now with our dollars, or find ourselves struggling through a period where the manufacturers are having to rush half ass solutions to market to meet a rapidly changed environment the next time gas prices shoot up above the $5/gallon mark.
Other choices include drilling in ANWR, building Coal Gasification Plants, building refineries, and increasing our domestic supplies of fuel so that there won't be a price spike based on manipulated demand by OPEC.
dru_ wrote:
Sure, there is the possibility that gas prices will creep up, and if they do that, it won't be a rush, but history shows us that gas is boom and bust. Personally, I am unwilling to take that risk.
I'm all for getting rid of the UAW so we can build economical domestic cars, and I am all for the relaxation of safety and pollution standards to allow the cars like the micro-diesels in Europe or the Kei cars from Japan.
dru_ wrote:
I long ago concluded that the cheapest answer is rarely the best answer to most things in life. I write software for Windows. I use a Mac. A Kymco scooter is cheaper and has the same feature set as the scooter I chose. I ride a Piaggio. The Zune is cheaper, I carry an iPod. I often choose to spend more on early adopter or superior products even when there are cheaper or more popular products on the market largely based upon my belief that the dollar is the only power I really have over the economy and products offered.
Which is a long winded answer to why, though I understand your points, I respectfully disagree that your SUV is a better answer, and that the Vectrix is a vehicle that only an idiot would buy. I'm perfectly happy to be an idiot in your opinion. Based upon your own arguments, I already fit the bill, owning both a scooter and a SMART car. Adding a Vectrix to the equation rounds it all out .
I don't mind if you buy a Vectrix with your own money.
I am certainly not calling you an idiot, for I happen to like the Smart car, and I own multiple scooters, and E-Bike, and two cars that get over 43 MPG. I also own a Suburban that I would never do without, and I am happy that gas is cheap enough to consider purchasing a new one.