Modern Vespa

Diesel here in Alabama has gone up that $1.40 over the span of 10 days. Gasoline is only up $1 over the same timeframe.

I broke the $50 fillup barrier for the first time last Thursday when I put 14.59 gallons in the Santa Cruz with gas prices at $3.669/gallon for Regular (87 Octane). I'm currently at 106 miles to empty, so I'll need to gas up either this weekend or early next week. I am NOT looking forward to it.

While I miss the <$8 weekly fillups in the BV350, I'm happy with the creature comforts of the Santa Cruz.

I forget about the micro-economy that is Santa Cruz. I did my undergrad there longer ago than I'd like to admit and things were always just a little more expensive than they were when I came home to San Diego.

Being on that campus and living on the beach was worth it, though!

PeterCC,

Sorry for the delayed response.

I meant both the move to renewables (cutting back domestic fuel production) and
Ukraine (cutting off buying fuel from Russia) have been the drivers of increased
fuel costs.

We just plane screwed up. Hurt our selves and our allies. In the last eighteen
months the USA has (1) Cancelled an excellent pipeline from Canada, (2) Cancelled
all future new drilling on Federal Land, (3) No longer issuing permits for
drilling in fuel rich Alaska, (4) eliminated tax incentives for Oil Companies.

In 18 months we went from being energy independent to having the highest cost
of fuel in 40 years. All this was self inflicted. My grandfather would have said
"we really screwed the pooch".

All this is not speculation on my part - most Americans know it well.

Another metaphor - "Don't throw the baby out with the dirty bath water".

I really believe we did things for the right reason (climate). This transition
show have been phased in slower over more time. We hurt our friends
over seas because we did not have the surplus fuel to provide to them at
a good price.

One last real thinker - We cut back our domestic fuel production and now have
to go begging for fuel from countries that hate us to try and prevent further
price increases.

Bob Copeland

No problem, Bob.

For the EU Russia is an important source for coal, crude oil and natural gas.
In 2019:
Coal: 46,7%
Crude oil: 26,9%
Natural gas: 41,1%
For all 3 Russia has the highest share of all sources.
I expect these shares will not have been much different this year.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html#carouselControls?lang=en

No wonder these Ukraine problems cause a lot of disturbance and panic. And for some also a chance for large profit. You know: never waste a good crisis.

But I understand that the share of fuels from Russia in the US is very small.
Of course the fuel market is a world market and I guess therefore you also feel the effects.

In 2020 there was a steep decrease in fuel prices due to Covid and more expensive wells closed for not being profitable anymore. Today they would be profitable, no doubt, but I can imagine they cannot open and be operational in just a blink of the eye.

As I see it: there is enough fuel of all kind available, but it will take some time for the market to find a new equilibrium and then still prices will be somewhat higher than they used to be. In the meantime we will pay more and even peak prices and that we will have to accept.

Personally I don't mind paying higher fuel and wheat prices if it eventually aids Ukraine. We've started thinking seriously about every car journey we make - long road trips in the camper van are out for the time being. We walk to the local shops instead taking the scooters. We buy wheat berries (50 lb at a time) and make our own flour - that drives down the cost of bread dramatically! A 2lb loaf costs us less than 30 cents to make ourselves, including the electricity to bake it.

These are very small sacrifices compared to our friend's situation in Ukraine.

A consumer based society is a fragile thing. Think of the cause and affect if 50% of households did this. $4.39 today here in the Jax area.

The only things I have to say about this are expressions of political specifics. I don't know - is there a meaningful way to talk about this that is apolitical?

At times, it is difficult to empathize when someone with a jacked up pickup that gets 12 miles a gallon whines about $5 gas.
Gas was so cheap 18 months ago for the same reason Auto Cannonball records were shattered in the same period. Anything else going on that might have lowered the domestic demand for gas? Not a lot of people could fill the family car and take a spin around the living room during the lockdown, and a lot less commuters using gas either.
Now, the economies of the world are roaring back, and everyone wants to go somewhere. Plus, wages have gone up pretty much above the board, which is also factored into the price of a commodity.
One of the solutions that has come up for high gas prices is a holiday on gas taxes. The Fed. Govt. gets 18 cents a gallon, and has for years. So they don't do as well when people buy less gas, and there's less money in the highway fund. So they aren't incentivized to cut fuel purchases. If there was a gas tax holiday, the odds are not that gas prices would drop by 18 cents, but that oil companies would make 18 cents a gallon more, and the mechanism by which we fund highway maintenance would suffer.
Greed and Fear of Loss are two of the strongest motivators for the human race. Gas prices seem to be set by the oil companies greed and the consumer's fear of loss.

Every time I see somone (around here, in the Netherlands) on the news complaining, saying "The car is my only alternative to get to work, and that's why my life sucks now that gas prices are so high!", I start to roll my eyes.

Because, and that's what the 'around here' part of the above sentence was for, public transportation is so incredibly well structured: for the major part of the Dutch population, public transport is a viable alternative to get to work.

Sure, it can take some more time. It can be a bit more of a hassle. But most importantly: it's something different for many people, and people are generally inclined to resist change and nurture the status quo.

In the end, I think the rising gas prices are a good thing. It makes us think about the options we have, makes us more considerate in the choices we make.

If you think about it, it's pretty weird that we all have become so car dependent.

(And yes, I know and I realise: in the US it's a different thing. Public transport isn't up to European standards, suburbs are designed for a car dependent lifestyle, etc. On that side of the pond, I fully understand change in that respect can ask for a lot more commitment - and time.)

I'm set! can get to and from work for at least two weeks!



all kidding aside, Wednesday saw diesel at 7 and 91 at over 6-- even at the cheap stations around me. noticeable downturn in traffic Thursday so we'll see what Friday and thru the weekend brings!

Cost me 14US$ to fill up the Primavera last week.

In the UK, post WW2, as a nation we went in the wrong direction. Successive governments saw the future in road transport. As a consequence, railways were ripped up, stations closed and in their place thousands of miles of new roads were built. Towns and villages became isolated as new 'bypass' roads were thought to be the solution. Now finally, in the 21st century with towns and cities choked with traffic and a fossil fuel energy crisis, are new rail services being implemented, stations re-opened, including reintroducing the old city centre tramway systems which were ripped-up in haste in the 1950's & 60's. In the last few decades the governmental mantra has regularly been 'We need adopt the Dutch transport system'.

Try paying in AUS$ next time, it might be cheaper.

You are correct that "…most Americans know it well…" but sadly what we "know" is not always based on fact. Our petrol prices are largely determined by world market conditions and only slightly influenced by governmental action. In fact governmental "action" is largely absent.

US crude oil production was virtually unchanged from 2020-21.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=a

Other items from above:
(1) This has zero affect on gasoline prices today as the pipeline would still be under construction and not operational until 2024.
(2) This was a six month moratorium via Executive Order that was overruled by the Courts. Leases by nature are speculative and take time to explore and develop prior to going into future production. Does not affect current wells.
(3) Not all of Alaska but true for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Even when leases were open, this was not seen as a boon by producers.

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953718234/major-oil-companies-take-a-pass-on-controversial-lease-sale-in-arctic-refuge

(4) This was proposed but not enacted. Tax law changes must come from Congress and overcome opposition filibuster.

We are feeling the pain of higher prices like everyone else. It is the current disruption of the delicate balance of world markets that is the cause of this pain.

Hopefully this will add to what we "know".

Chris from CLE

If you have a long term perspective, you will understand that the true cost of gasoline here in the USA is actually not higher than it has been for much of the last century (by that I mean it is within trend).

And for those of you thinking "it could have been prevented", no, no it could not have been. Oil companies in the US are still reeling from the COVID drop (remember, negative crude prices?). They have been super hesitant to "drill baby drill" due to the perception this is likely a short term issue (a perception that lasted until two weeks ago), and in any even it takes months to deploy rigs.

Remember how Russia accounts for about 3% of US crude imports? Irrelevant, as crude is a global commodity.

There is exactly one person on the entire planet that deserves the entire blame for the current elevation in energy prices, and he doesn't live in the USA.

This may be simplistic but IMHO blaming government or "greedy" oil companies seems nonsensical and agenda driven.

It is simple supply and demand. Pandemic starts and oil prices fall because demand is low (people not driving as much) and supply was high. So production of oil has to slow because oil production costs don't drop which lowers supply. States and countries start to get back to work as the pandemic fades which increases demand and outpaces supply. The Putin spike put a dent in supply but eventually it will catch up to demand.

I'll be switching over to scooter commuting in a week or two as the temperatures rise and won't take as many car trips to lessen the impact on my family but I am really not worried about the situation. I didn't wake up this morning to the sound of bombs dropping in my neighborhood at least.

Yes. This ^^^

Chris from CLE

Great exchange of ideas.

As my Dad use to say, "listen closely, there are some valuable information
from both sides of an issue".

I do not know if I have the cool head of my old man. I am kind of a control
type that thinks things can be managed.

Taking all the good input from this thread, changing regulations, increasing
production, and allowing world markets to balance should bring down the
cost of fuel.

Unfortunately, fuel is dead dog central to our economic prosperity.
My last thought, I still think we screwed the pooch and could have
and have managed the price of fuel better.

Bob Copeland

BC,

Gracious and thoughtful answer. I appreciate and agree with your final thought.

The guys at the barbershop all wanted to talk about my scooters this morning and how luck I am to have a 100 MPG vehicle. I agreed with that too.

Chris from CLE

Will it?

According to the Mercury News, high gas prices in California are a combination of high taxes, and of consumers being used to California being expensive, so they can get away with higher prices.

That last bit is strange. You would think that a brand would undercut the others for more market share (Econ 101). Apparently that's what smaller shops like Rotten Robbie do, although they're few and far between. Arco is still the cheapest I know of - you don't often see cheaper gas in SF.

Also, California's regulations lead to a blend that is only sold in California. According to the article, most of the capacity we have to refine oil (e.g. that plant in Martinez) ends up getting used for California gas.

Opposition to the invasion of a sovereign nation comes surprisingly easy for Americans, considering I'm still lookin for those Iraqi WMDs.

Well, that's because they didn't exist, but it's OK when we do it.

250,000 Iraqi's died because we had no Plan B, plus of course we also invaded the wrong country on the strength of a lie.

I think that we're talking about a double standard.

**usual MV posting guidelines reminder**

while I understand that this topic certainly has the legs to walk down geopolitical route, let's all hang a right at the fork and avoid that path, hmm?

some of you are playing dangerously close to the edge with wanton disregard.

this will be the only and final warning.

On the bright side, I no longer have to stress about what to buy the Mrs for birthdays and Christmas. Just filling up the car is enough.

Knowing she can do that for herself, right? What is your next "what to buy the Mrs.?"

Le Wife has her automotive routine down cold. I just cook and keep the Mac in her studio humming like it should. Works for her, works for me.

performance parts for the scooter!

Do any members in here actually sell new scooters and have noticed an upswing in sales ?

Granted it's early days but I'm wondering if we'll go back to the trend of 2008 ?

I am guilty of looking at a Honda Cub to complement the behemoth in my garage. Busted.

All I have for you is via my local dealer: over the last six months, their major problem has been maintaining stock: when I initially put in my order for a GTS SuperTech, the Vespa showroom was maybe 1/3 full, and all but one bike was spoken for. The only reason I have a SuperTech now instead of (possibly still) waiting is that the person who bought one of the few the shop had gotten hold of (just before Christmas…yes, the one I was posing next to in another thread) brought it back because whoever the person gifted to apparently hated the color. I haven't seen a 'Tech grace their space since, although there've been a few more Vespas and Piaggios, mostly 150s and smaller. Same deal with their other offerings (Moto-Guzzi, Indian, Zero). My take is that this is going to continue for at least the rest of the year. Beyond that, who knows?

And: yeah, can totally see a Cub in your roster.

I've been there. One of my ex's mentioned that she needed a new kettle so in an attempt to pleasure her I secretly went out and bought her a new one, but because it was Magnolia and not White (to match the tiles ) it came home with me.

Pleasuring your Girlfriend with a kettle!!

Not the most comfortable of sex toys one would imagine?

It could have been worse, he might of bought her a new ironing board or a hoover

Bill really needs to post pictures of his ex girlfriends jugs so we can properly appreciate what he was dealing with.

Does that mean you're legally the second owner? Did you get a discount?

This is from last Sunday it's up another 30 cents. $6.89 this AM.


…….. 70 MPG… isn't enough at these prices

Yikes! $7.00 a gallon, just wow.

A couple comments to above posts without getting political.

I think here in USA and possibly a great many other parts of the world in order to be weaned off of fossil fuels they will have to become prohibitively expensive. I think that is the only way to get people to stop using them.

I think there are other people that are smarter than me that have planned this for quite a long time. Surely when the political leaders are enacting legislation to prohibit the burning of fossil fuels (read mandating only electrics being sold) they have considered the question "How do we get there from here?" and one of the possible answers that must have come up is that we have to incrementally raise the price of fuel to discourage consumption.

Anybody that knows anything about diffusion studies should realize that people respond better with incentive. What is a diffusion study you ask? My favorite New Yorker magazine article explains it pretty well and as a side benefit you learn about fashion! March 1997 folks pretty cool!

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1997/03/17/the-coolhunt

I think this subject also relevant to vaccine acceptance. It seems to me that there are those who see no benefit to a vaccine and are still against it. Without being judgmental or political if you want people to adopt an idea they need incentive, they need to see that it benefits them. They resist if the benefit doesn't have a personal aspect, and its harder for some to see it than others but I don't think anyone will miss the point when gas is $7.00 a gallon that its time to use less fuel. I see it going up from here like it always has up some down a little up some more down a little up a bunch ...

So as much of a motorhead as I am loving the things that burn the fuels I realize that for the good of everybody this needs to happen.

The performance scooter parts for my wife thing sounds great but not quite sure how to sell it. Advice welcomed.

Last edited by skids on Sat Mar 12, 2022 10:44 am; edited 1 time in total

I strongly that that will motivate people to move to alternative fuel sources.

BTW, discussions about guns is not allowed on MV as stated in the Posting Guidelines, the first thread at the top of the forum page.

Cheers
Miguel