Modern Vespa

Oil hit $113 a barrel today. Gas here in NE Florida hit $3.79.
If I were still working I'd have about $5000 to play with but alas, I don't. When gas hits $5-6 a gallon here, I bet the 50cc scooters will be selling like hotcakes.

Not to mention EVs - 2 wheel and 4 wheel.

Last time gas hit $4, Genuine Buddy's sold like hotcakes. Think it could happen again? IDK

Mrs jimc went to fill the Subaru - $4.89, was $4.49 two days ago. She went back 10 minutes later with the camper van - $5.09.

Scooters might just become very popular again!

Since history repeats itself, 15 MPG and less vehicles will be sold at a heavy loss

How high does gas have to go for a macho truck owner to grow a pair, give up their fortress of solitude and ride a PTW?

jimc,

My local dealer, Scooterville, has 18 of the scoots on the showroom floor with sold
signs on them. Delayed new owner pickup due to Frostbite Falls weather conditions.
I went to visit my new Kymco 550 (Also on the Floor with a sold sign) and Chris
had sold 4 Genuine Buddys that morning.

breakinwind,

It is tough if your huge vehicle gets 12-16 miles to the gallon and you have to
pay $200 a week to fill up the tank. You are right, the last time this happen the
big SUVs were dumped. Several of the customers in my insurance agency are
parking the monsters and buying a subcompact with great miles per gallon.

The soccer moms in my neighborhood love their 9 passenger Suburbans, Yukons
and Denalis. My heart does go out to the trades guys and their big Pickups.

Bob Copeland

It's going to be...interesting...to see how the current used car situation & last year's chip shortage will factor into things, as well as the current shipping and scarcity issues.

if you can buy complete, clean, good running bikes that basically need nothing and are tagged and titled you might clear a few doubloons if you turn and burn. but you're talking about a pretty decent investment money and time wise.

anything that needs work, that margin shrinks considerably.

I'd guess that we'll see the usual influx of people freaking out and just buying cheap china crap. decent makes will see an uptick as well, but that could probably be attributed to just the general sales cycles of seasons and years of the market being somewhat down.

The CA DMV once told me I needed a license if I sold sold any more bikes.
I got a job instead.

in CA you can only sell a certain number of vehicles per year before you have to apply for (and get) a vehicle sales persons license.

As a hobbyist I bought a bunch in 2020. Not looking to make a killing but enough to buy vintage parts and services.

Flip the bikes keep the coin with family

The one bad thing about looking for work is sooner or later you find it.

Scooters in Reno are not popular and using the local craigslist as my guide I have noticed that the rattiest of motorcycles seem to be asking a $2500 minimum and yet I regularly see scooters for well under that amount, especially the 50cc models.

Out riding running errands today in the Reno area it was very windy. There is a McCarron loop around greater Reno is a great way to get around without actually being on the freeway for us scooter types. I was noticing today for the first time that I wished the 150 had just a little bit more, and came to the realization that the 50 even highly modified would be lacking for McCarron hills on a windy day.

I think that for my area we might see a bump in people trying the scooters but don't expect it to last, or expect them to move up in size a bit when figure out the 50's are just not enough for the McCarron loop and some of similar more heavily trafficked expressways.

What usually happens is that people drag stuff out of the garage with no miles that hasn't seen the light of day since the last time gas got high. So lots of carburetors will be sold. And a lot of people will buy scooters, if they are available. This is a different buyer than the Chinese crap purchaser, because they need to show up at work on time. Kymco, Genuine, SYM should do well, if they have any stock to sell. Honda and Yamaha will sell through all their sub 150cc stuff again, and Piaggio will find a way to turn a good situation into another reason dealers hate them (I've been hearing it constantly for the last week or so). If they were to fill a bunch of containers with Typhoons, Libertys and some of the sub 200cc Aprilia scooters, they would sell through them fast. So the odds are they will half fill each container with two or three Moto Guzzis, a half dozen Aprilia sport bkes that the've been warehousing for three years and Gilera parts. It is Piaggio USA after all.
And what makes this time unique is that there aren't a lot of cheap small used cars out there for people to purchase so they can park the gas hog.
It's a better time to start a scooter repair business.

Can you say electric bikes?

I agree
good time if you are mechanically inclined to do
tire changes, oil changes, belt changes and carb cleaning on scooters or motorcycles.
Lots of folks going to be taking motorcycles and scooters to work and need them to perform.

I ride 75k round trip to work about 48miles.
I drive my car as I do all my telephone calls in the car on the road. Yet I am thinking of doing the commute by vespa.
Gas her is now 1.80 per litre ....

Does anyone remember that girl and her boyfriend that set up a Chinese scooter business out of her house? They sold a bunch of bikes and I can't remember the details but she was not well received here.

Rattle can lady? Ohhhh... what ..... was ...... her .... name .....
NGAJessica2011 !

Wonder how things turned out.

The fuel price in South Africa is regulated in regions and it is adjusted monthly.

On Wednesday it went up to US$1-40 per litre or $5.04 per US gallon.

that's about rate around here. cheap stations are just under 5 and most everybody else is 5 and up. filled up my taco and it was $75 tonight. that is not a big truck and holds about as much as a standard passenger car. granted, I use it primarily for pick up and delivery for service work but that's still a chunk of change. and the kicker is people will bitch and moan about the cost of bike hauling till hell won't have it.

I don't disagree one bit. but man... for the people going into it, if they've not been down that road before? boy howdy are they in for a surprise!

Ohio too.

Sounds like this might be an obstacle in many places.

Chris from CLE

Here's a start:

1400 miles. Doesn't run. No title.

Perfect opportunity.

more like perfect way to spend some money and some time and not make a dime in return.

hard pass.

I'm preparing to take advantage of high gas prices to do scooter delivery part time. Once fuel costs make it hard for air bag jockeys to make money this way, I'll have no problem making money.
Another benefit is, people may decrease unnecessary driving, there will be less morons on the road and that should increase PTW safety. I think the pocket book is more powerful than environment instability when it comes to decreasing emissions.

When someone ask me about scooters they never listen. In America its always about cheap. Example:

A friend is buying a Tao Tao Powermax 150. He doesn't want used again but the Tao only has a 90 day parts warranty. I told him to spend the extra and get a Benelli, bit more money, better dealer and better warranty. It all comes down to price.

I tell anyone to buy a used Honda Metro or something along those lines instead of a cheap China 50cc scooter but they always go cheap new over quality used. It is a special feeling being the first to drop a new scooter and scruff it up. And push a new scooter that dies without warning.

There used to be a guy at our local flea market that sold mostly 50cc scooters. Always nicer stuff that was clean and presentable. A few scratches and wear but nothing major. Also did tune-ups and stuff. He did good business but the flea market lot got sold to a car dealership and he closed up shop. So it can be done as a side hustle and be quit successful.

I agree. I work on bikes on the side and usually this time of year it's all about chains, sprockets, tires and batteries, with the occasional carb work. Sometime I can make more on a flip, but wrenching is a much more reliable income. I'll work on cheap scoots for local kids if they are willing to get there hands dirty. Other than that, I won't touch 'em. Low mileage, non-running Vespas come up for sale all the time at somewhat high prices. These sit on FB Marketplace for months, unsold, because no one wants to pay that much for a dead scoot.
The biggest problem I am having now is parts, particularly tires. A lot of the vendors have not been able to keep their stock up for over a year and I am usually on a waiting list at a couple of places.

It has been my hobby for several years to be a mechanic but chasing the dollars there is more money in construction both as an employee and as a business owner I think. Many of the skills transfer over.

I was advised very young to learn multiple crafts by a wise old craftsman. He was a good guy but had a bad drinking habit, drank to excess but was not a mean drunk and a functioning alcoholic and he had no problem making a living as a small contractor. I think this is the draw for some small businesses, not much oversight.

When I finally got my contractors license I set about to fulfill a lifelong dream of building my own house and I did just that with my first project as a contractor. In the early 2000's you could make more money buying a house and remodeling the kitchen and then selling the house than you could just contracting to remodel the kitchen and then you didn't have the fussy old lady that owned the house bothering you while you were working.

Not only that but I realized another lifelong dream of not paying any income taxes. The way the tax laws work you can sell your principle residence for two of the last five years with no capital gains for up to $500,000 for a married couple and $250,000 for a single. You can do this every two years/49 months the tax applies to whatever tax year it falls in.

So the recipe is you buy the house and move the fifth wheel in and completely gut and remodel/rebuild the house. When it has been your principle residence for just over two years you can then sell it and for me happily married after I declare all of the costs with receipts unless I make more than $500,000 in profits there is zero income tax.

I found myself on an island just off the coast of North Carolina and I was working at home. My kids went to the beach every day! Then came the housing crisis of 2008 and fortunately for me I was not overextended and had heavy industrial/welding skills because that was the only construction job available in 08-09. We didn't lose everything and kept food on the table and the family together but it was a hit for sure.

The lessons for me were thankfully I took the advice of the wise old drunk and in a feast or famine construction career I was able to stay gainfully employed by being multi skilled.

And you have to remember you are a businessman with a hammer not a craftsperson with a business. My problem was being too fussy and making it too nice especially on things you couldn't see behind the drywall/siding. The opposite of a flipper I want everything I touch to last 1000 years, I had to rein myself in a little.

Shoddy work bothered me my whole career but early on it was obvious the boss just wanted you to hurry up and didn't care if it was not quite right, when I finally became my own boss then nobody could tell me I couldn't spend any more time on it but it did affect the bottom line a little bit and if you are a perfectionist you have to temper it a little bit.

Around me the only scooters (new) to be had are '20-'21 Cubs and one ADV150. The multi brand dealer gave up on Kymco years ago and won't carry the SMax or XMax. Closest Vespa is 75 miles. The 50cc scooter is for the DWI crowd, but doing pretty well.

I expect renewed interest in these dealers handling scooters very soon. With the "war on gas" a stated public policy I don't see any changes for another three years.

The market will plunge for camper/motor homes. They came roaring back with Covid shutdowns, soon to die again.

I could not agree with this sentiment more, case in point my neighbor is having solar panels installed so I asked him about the details, what it costs what the return is etc.

NV Energy is owned by Berkshire Hathaway. They do a survey of how much electricity you use and you are limited in the number of solar panels you can install under terms of a contract with NV Energy by your electrical usage. You cannot sell the power back but only get energy credits.

Basically my neighbor said there is zero financial benefit unless possibly resale value on the house might be increased.

I told him I was wanting to do solar panels and then convert gas water heater to electric, he said be sure you do the electric water heater first, and it kind of bothers me they do it this way. I get it the power company needs to be profitable to be able to maintain the grid but it slows the conversion to renewables by removing incentive.

My neighbor a good guy and avid lifelong skier is doing it just to do his part to save the environment. I think a lot more people would do this if there were financial incentive.

I wouldn't rely on your neighbor as your primary source of information about residential solar panels. There are plenty of companies out there who do these installations and virtually any of them are willing to do a site survey and develop cost estimates for installation and for long term benefit (yes, it is usually by energy credits which reduce your home energy bill). If you are actually interested, look at real information and make your own informed decisions. And get more than one estimate, just like when you are considering a reroofing project or whatever.

You are preaching to the choir with that statement. Research research research before you pull the trigger. There is a wealth of information out there and link below for my particular area.

https://www.nvenergy.com/cleanenergy/solar

Interestingly enough they don't come right out and say what I learned from my neighbor who experienced the process personally, that they limit your solar panels under contract by the amount of previous usage, that they discourage installing more solar panel generation capability than the amount currently used.

Hence the advice, install the electric water before you have the survey done.

When you get away from all the incentives and timeshare sales marketing approach, and consider the true life expectancy of the panels, does anyone know what solar really costs? The sales pitch opens with, "What are you paying now?"

Everything is so murky, it's hard to tell. The cost of electricity is extremely expensive in CT and future costs are expected to rise. Whether or not I'll "save" in the long run is somewhat based on the future cost of electricity, which is difficult to predict. But the solar companies always start their pitch with "electricity prices will continue to rise!" Throw in that unknown with the here-today, gone-tomorrow nature of the industry, the 26% of solar purchase price tax rebate, the "points" that are paid to get the most competitive interest rates on the "low-interest" loans, and the fickle sunshine in CT, and who knows!

But, perhaps against my better judgement, we are going solar and just had the site survey this week. We are purchasing panels which have a 25 year warranty to produce at 92% of peak power after 25 years. The panel producer is, according to their website, "the only U.S. solar company that's lasted longer than our 25-year warranty". Lol. That should say something about the industry! Of course, we couldn't even start on the solar process without actually providing a copy of our power bill, which includes usage for the last 12 months. This essentially gives the solar company our electricity cost and let's them "save" us money, but maximize their profits (at our expense).

On a positive note, we are being allowed to add additional panels to produce "over" our current usage in anticipation of a future EV purchase (we are all ICE now); so we will be producing at 110% of our usage until the EV comes along. We can sell the excess back to the power company for a credit.

It can be a maximum of ten years to a minimum of two years for full payback if you DIY for fully off-grid:

You make excellent points in your post, the ambiguity of it all "but, perhaps against my better judgement" is exactly what I was referring to in my post and my comment in response to Dooglas! The power company requires a survey so they know your numbers and they are graciously allowing you an extra 10% for a future planned EV purchase...

It would be much better I think to have obvious financial incentives for the people to install the solar panels rather than having the thought "perhaps against my better judgement" in your head when you finally decide to pull the trigger. Me personally when my bullshit meter is activated like that I back off and rethink, and try to work the angles because clearly that is what they are doing.

Like my neighbor advised I need to install electric water heaters first so they are part of the survey, then I need to set my computer up to mine bitcoin even though I have no interest in cryptocurrency and run it 24-7 just to pump up the electric usage then I can get permission to install enough solar panels to make it worth while.

I realize with this method I will be generating more electricity than I need but my plan is then to find a use for the excess credits like mining bitcoin but the whole point is that rather than install 10 solar panels and later have to add more I would rather install 20 solar panels and generate some income from my investment. I almost feel like the power company is monopolizing power generation to the detriment of the individual consumer as well as the environment.

I have no problem with them in northern Nevada saying to us that we have to pay a maintenance fee for the grid, that is totally fair but we should also be able to generate income from the power we make and that is just not right how they have it set up.

Again in northern California with PG&E they let you sell it back but at a lower rate when the sun is out and they charge a higher rate to consume power after dark. I think the long term goal should be to have the utility build the storage facilities and maintain storage and grid for a fee to the consumer but if you want to build a small scale solar farm on your property you should be able to benefit financially also, and a well thought out simple way to configure that would go a long way to helping the environment.

This may be the answer and I think I am heading that way. Super insulate the house, solar power generation, solar hot water, EV's for storage and a custom natural gas generator for back up and then I can remove the electric feed entirely and only need the natural gas hookup, internet, and water/sewer ties to "the grid"

Solar hot water is easy. and I also have a research paper about how to construct a compressor-less air conditioner which is kind of a swamp cooler in reverse utilizing the same circulation system the underfloor radiant heating system uses.

Its a lot of work, and depending on property values/neighborhood you may never recover the investment cost but it sure would be nice to unhook from the grid and not lose any comforts. Probably better to invest in the right location before attempting this in a poorly constructed tract in Reno like where I live.

I've always wondered why evaporative cooling isn't used in residential areas with plentiful water.
Also should I paint my roof white every morning in the summer and black every evening?

I said that wrong forgive me, I had the idea right in my head but the words just came out confused.

What I meant to say was a heat pump in reverse. It is in fact a swamp cooler that is built remote and then piped in through the house in the form of cool water to radiantly cool the structure using the same system to radiantly heat the house in the cool season.

And for the second part I don't at all think it necessary to change color on the roof but proper ventilation is key. The living space needs to be super insulated and sealed for air leaks. The attic needs to have ventilation at the top of the underside of the roof with a ridge vent exhaust installed. This system works best when the inlet volume is just slightly larger than the exhaust volume.

In this way in the heat of summer the natural convection serves to keep the air moving in the attic keeping heat from building up. The attic will always be hotter than the outside regardless of color on top of roof. You know you have it correct when inside attic is no more than 10-15 degrees hotter than outside. Many improperly vented attics get quite a bit hotter.

This is the research paper on a solar air conditioner using no compressor.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281740386_Solar_Air-Conditioning_Design_for_a_Compressor-Less_System_using_Peltier_Effect

The water heater...

https://www.builditsolar.com/Projects/SpaceHeating/SolarShed/solarshed.htm