Modern Vespa

It's because of money. Tax breaks [i.e. https://www.rideapart.com/news/628192/offroad-vehicle-tax-credit-bill/ ] for switching over to electric or other alternative powered vehicles coupled with gasoline and repairs and other costs to keep ICE vehicles on the road likely to increase in the future.

Many of us will make the switch. The more people will take up these alternative PTWs, the less ICE versions will be produced. There won't be that much incentive for manufacturers to continue and it will quickly become a niche market. When? Who knows? But that it will take place is certain.

Don't think so? Let's wait and see.

I like ICE engines and probably won't give them up quickly, but I could see myself adding an electric motorcycle in the future, if the price is right.


(headline edit)

A motorcycle, a scooter, without a real engine? No, not for me.
I keep my BV 300 for as long as it goes. Or is allowed on the road. And if no longer allowed, well, that is then the of it.

Lower middle class and developing nations will feel the sting of conversion the most

There are several assumptions bundled up in that, and I don't think all of them are necessarily correct. Certainly the cost today is a factor, but I don't think that will continue to be the case forever. And electric vehicles in various forms -- from stand-on scooters to bad Vespa knock-offs -- are already being adopted in lots of places around the world.

As with most disruptive developments, the growth curve isn't linear.

Yes a lot of unintended consequences and benefits.
Toyota CEO has chosen a more diverse slower path

Looking at who is riding what scooters in big cities in the US, I don't know as much about other places, your argument holds water. Low income groups have become more mobile with the advent of electric scooters. Electric scooters can be seen all over the place, especially among more economically disadvantaged people.

as I replied in another thread recently about the bmw ce-04, it can't even make it across the city I live in and back again. ie only good for medium to short commutes.

I don't see ev being suitable for bikes that like to ride in the country any time soon. but I'm not saying never.

so when is the "eventually" as giallo claims in the title? will I still be alive? will I have dementia by then?

And I don't think that's a bad thing, necessarily. It's up to the company leaders to chart a course that is right for their company, based on their analysis of where the market is going. Whether he's right or not is a different question, and one that I (and everyone here) can't answer yet.

Ultimately, though, I don't think it will be up to one CEO. It will be up to the market as a whole, and what the market demands. If there's a demand, someone else besides Toyota will fill it.

I'm going to disagree with this.
Developing nations were quicker to adopt cellular phones than land-lines.
In fact, many places exist where landlines *never* were installed, as cellular technology arrived in time to sort of pre-obsolete it.
So for those places with no gas stations but an abundance of sunlight, I think small vehicles with electric motors could well gain acceptance before large ones with gas engines.

Toyota CEO sees it differently. There is also the human cost to dig up rare earth materials by very young and vulnerable poor populations that we all know aren't being taken advantage of?

SQUIRREL!!!

That again assumes that the current state-of-the-art battery technology (and corresponding battery chemistry) is the only one possible and the last battery that mankind will ever invent. That seems implausible at best.

Speaking of vulnerable poor populations digging up minerals, shouldn't we be shutting down all the coal mines?

I suspect that the sources of FUD about EVs and minerals are actually the ones that profit from the coal mines, though, so maybe I'm asking for too much.

Well, yeah, but that was like 200 years ago so can't possibly be relevant today.
...Can it?

There are (I hope) far less actual kids working in coal mines in America these days, but that doesn't mean that vulnerable adult populations aren't being exploited to dig up that old-tech mineral.

And who the heck knows what's happening in the rest of the world's coal mines.

I can't see how big E Motorcycles will be for a while. The sound of an engine is an integral part of the experience. Eventually the people who ride because of the visceral side will be replaced by people who don't get internal combustion and electric motorcycles will be the rule. Hopefully it will be after I'm gone.

Cruisers and ADV bikes will be, I predict, the toughest nut to crack in the two-wheel market. This has to do with experience and range, respectively, of those two market segments.

But small scooters will go electric pretty quickly. They're already there in some parts of the world. medium scooters next, large-ish scooters after that. I think that's probably inevitable.

I'm personally looking forward to the day when people are frustrated and angry at not being able to put straight pipes on their electric Harley.

I think the ultimate answer is…complicated. (Yeah, I was going to say "42", but that's a bit old.)

- As far as the "future" of electric personal transport in urban areas is concerned, not only have I seen it, I've bought into it: pretty much the moment Revel introduced its electric motor-scooter* rental service to NYC, I couldn't sign-on soon enough: I'd been all but begging for such a service to come to Gotham. It's saved me the proverbial buttload of time getting to and from various parts of Brooklyn (and to an extent, Manhattan) on those days I didn't bring my own ride into town. But here's the critical part of that service: Revel keeps track of all those bikes, from location to charge-rates, and ropes-in any bike falling below, say, 5% battery life (although I've ridden a few that got down to 2-3%, and I've messaged Revel about it via heir app). Charging infrastructure in Gotham, like most other places, is mediocre at best, so these folks in Revel vans have a busy time of it, snatching low-charge bikes off the street and replacing them with freshly-charged ones. I can only imagine how impatient they are for swappable-battery scooter-tech to become viable for them to use.

- On Infrastructure: If one of the richest (and presumably eco-conscious – correct me if I'm wrong on that count) countries on the planet is making noises about limiting EV usage, Dog help us all:

There's even more on my mind about this, but I think I've pontificated enough here…

(* Ive been pretty adamant about differentiating electric motor-scooters from stuff like electric push-scoots and the like. I seriously loathe the latter, but simultaneously hold a fond infatuation with electric mono-wheels/unicycles, which on a certain level would seem even riskier to tool around on. Of course, being of a certain age, I'm also a BC comics fan.)

squirrels everywhere

https://theramreview.com/the-true-cost-of-electric-vehicles/

For every article or paper on the "dark side" of EVs, I can find an opposing article or paper debunking the concern trolling. The internet is awash in such drivel. No, seriously. Reposting this kind of stuff is meaningless and ultimately just adds noise to the discussion.

It's also been the same story for the entire modern history of EVs. The exact so-called problems keep changing, but the oil industry keeps funding people to come up with new concern-trolling bullshit to throw into the mix to keep us all in doubt.

Electric cars are inevitable. You can believe it or not. It will happen regardless. Many things will have to change along the way. And they will. The only question is when.

By the way, the RAM in "The RAM Review" stands for Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability. "RAM" is a term used primarily in the oil and gas industries, and The RAM Review does in fact appear to be focused on things like plant maintenance, lubrication, and so on.

Not exactly an impartial source. I would go so far as to say that anything they have to say about EVs can be readily dismissed as oil industry propaganda.

Not to be morbid but most of us here will not be here in 20 years is who cares! So pump that gas and give me my two stroke smoke. And let the kids figure it out. Winston tastes good like a cigarette should.

There's already some promising stuff in ADV bikes: there's one lady riding a Cake bike along the west coast of Africa right now.

Quiet Harleys... now THAT's something to look forward to!

There's always somebody crazy enough to try it. But it's way more difficult than an ICE ADV bike at the moment. I'm doubtful that their core market will ever accept it. HD might go out of business before that.

Electric cars are already quite common in some parts of the US. What makes you think you won't see it in your lifetime?

I see them and want one. They are to expensive. and the tech and support is not ready yet they are stacking batteries. I have an electric weed wip. and me and wife have electric bikes.
and a eblower they work great. I ride Vespas and that is all that matters at my age.

Battery-swapping scheme powers Kenya's switch to electric motorcycles

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-27/battery-swapping-electric-motorcycles-in-kenya/101811270

I wouldn't be surprised if an aftermarket company like Vance & Hines doesn't market a loud 'big twin' sound track app for their electric cruisers.

As someone who owns a electric bicycle and a electric kick scooter, my motor scooter will stay gas powered. When it came time to replace my car I looked at the Tesla and Chevy Bolt. I just couldn't get behind the whole range anxiety thing. So I purchased a Honda Fit.

The only reason I would consider an electric version of a motor scooter is for a lack of maintenance. The older I get the more I hate doing oil changes, valves and other ICE motor servicing. But even if the government offered to rebate some of the cost toward an electric motor scooter I'd just pick a 2-stroke instead. Range anxiety. Think about the uphill battle the government is facing.

Do we really care about the cost of going electric? The underdeveloped countries that suffer to make it happen? No
Do we really care about the future impact of spent electric batteries? No
Do we really care that if the average person goes electric it affects the poor with higher gasoline purchases? No
Do we really think the average American will give up their Parking Lot Princess/Mall Crawler for a electric powered truck? No

-Ethical progress is something that is a big factor, not just being ignored.
-Battery recycling and materials reclamation is already being used.
-What? Less people using petrol doesn't make the price increase for the remaining.
-There's always going to be stubborns who bow up in the road. They'll catch up eventually.

Will people who buy 50cc Tao Tao scooters discover this at their peril?

https://www.redfoxpowersports.com/1000w-electric-scooter-moped-go-one-automatic-3-speed-selection-all-in-1-digital-cluster-street-legal-in-50-states

Just a note regarding adoption and costs in lower income countries. Last time I was in mainland China (3+ years ago, pre-covid), I barely saw any ICE scooters. They are essentially banned in major cities for pollution reasons. There are millions upon millions of cheap electric scooters operating there, and millions on millions more old ICE scooters converted to electric. Many are super rough, slow speed, jankity work bikes, all banged and bandaged up with barely working lights and lead-acid car-style batteries, but heavily relied on by billions of people for work, deliveries, and daily transport. One notable exception was Chongqing (the largest metropolitan area on earth). The main city is built in a mountainous region, and ICE motorcycles were still common there to navigate the terrain -- electrics can't do the hills.

My point is, electric scooters in Europe and the US are expensive, luxury items, and priced accordingly. If you just need to go a few miles in a dense urban area and don't need to go above 30 mph (honestly, the case for most of us rich Westerners too), you can do it way, way, way cheaper than for what we spend on our ICE scooters and high-end electric scoots. They already do it in China, and I'm sure the other high-population Asian/SE Asian countries are not far behind. Can't wait to go back and see!

Besides reduced air pollution, the quietness of the traffic is a huge plus.

Answer to the question: I don't know. I do know that I have taken out a friend's Zero motorcycle a few times and loved it. I did miss shifting, but not the noise. I prefer not to draw attention to myself by running loud pipes. The Zero I rode was the SR model, had all the torque of a Harley from the start, with the acceleration of a liter bike. Fantastic brakes as well as a great handling machine. Downside was price of course - about 15k at the time new. And for those who think there will be less problems/maintenance? For the most part true, tires and the belt needs changing out occasionally, but problems by the dealer. I almost took the leap and bought when my friend wanted to upgrade but glad I didn't. The BMS went out, dealer had to order and install to the tune of $1450. So they are not without their problems.

I love that one from your image with the dual shocks in the rear.

Aren't we lucky that no wars ever were fought over oil and that extracting and burning fossil fuels is so so clean?

Most arguments against other than ICE powered vehicles fall quickly apart on closer inspection. Not saying that extracting lithium from mines is a clean business, but we are still very much at the dawn of alternativly powered vehicles. A lot of "arguments" against these technologies are akin to someone having looked at early diesel and gasoline engines and come away with the conclusion that horses and steam engines will move us about forever.

My buddy bought a used Zero to compliment his PX. Don't remember which model but probably entry/middle of the road. Loved it but its time for service and dealerships were/are backed up for months (Orange County, CA). Looking at trading it in for something he can service.

I think that your last sentence said it all.

Mass production of domesticly owned EV's is still in its infancy and so many of the bugs havn't been ironed out yet so wouldn't it be prudent to wait at least until it becomes the Law - The time when you can no longer buy an ICE. Rather that than be the Manufacturers default R n D Department.

Right now -

1 The Jaguar I Pace Battery will totally fail without warning.

2 The Chevy Bolt catches fire.

3 The Hummer is only really pushing it's own battery along as it weighs 4 Tonnes, most of it battery.

4 The Mini's and the Honds's range is embarrassing.

5 The Ford Lightening loses a 3rd of its range in cold weather.

6 Tesla and Rivian's build quality and reliability are just woeful. JD Power as a reference.

7 Teslas especially may be unintentionally running motorcyclists over when using Autopilot.

8 Battery recycling takes a lot of heat and C02 until it turns the pack into a kind of grease at which point much of the Lithium is lost. Jon Bentley - The Future of Cars as a reference.

I also think that there are too many EV starts up that will fail because loyal customers will buy an EV from a Manufacturer that they know and trust rather than one that may not be there in a couple of years time.

Without question these are very interesting times we are living in but when EV's can match the cost and convenience of an ICE vehicle maybe then I'll look at one.

As a note I just drove from Calais to Amsterdam and back ( around 460 miles ) on one tank of fuel with just 1000cc's.

I averaged 55 mpg and the car cost about a 1/3d of the price of a base Electric Mini which will only take you 100 miles around this time of year.

You (and several others in this thread) apparently missed the word "eventually" in the title of this topic. In your rush to condemn future progress, you hold examples of the present and recent past high in the air and shake them about, madly saying "Look! Look at this shit!"

Predictable. And not really relevant to the theme of "eventually".

To clarify, when the replacement is actually better than the original then it has succeeded and we ain't there yet.

Nobody said we were.

(Though I've been happily driving my Fiat 500e for about 7 years now)