Modern Vespa

An interesting article on MSN Money about how long it would take to break even on a scooter purchase, including calculator:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveonaCar/IsAScooterTheAnswer.aspx

Please note, this does not include a calculator for fun factor and meeting new people.

I'm shocked this was done by an accountant. Does he/she really think the price of fuel will remain at $4 during the duration of the 11.15 year payback period?

I needed to justify my purchase to some degree also and used fuel pricing from 2002 to present (based on some gov. table I found on the internet) and extended the curve for the next 5 years to estimate future fuel prices in my spreadsheet. My estimates for fuel price:
2010 - $5.00/gal
2011 - $6.10/gal
2012 - $7.29/gal
2013 - $8.54/gal
2014 - $10.20/gal

Using my spreadsheet and his 4000miles/year, 80mpg scooter, and 25mpg car I calculate a payback of a little under 5 years. I didn't count maintenance on the scoot since it would be more than offset by the reduced maintenance on the car (example 4 car tires vs. 2 scoot tires).

My spreadsheet may be more simplistic than the articles, but 11.15 year payback seems wrong. I've attached my spreadsheet if anybody is interested. Cells in yellow are inputs.