oopsclunkthud wrote:
JLB wrote:
Brazil has new oil finds that nearly match Saudi Arabia.
Canada has enough oil in it's tar sands to last hundreds of years.
We have 300-400 years of coal, which can be turned into oil via the Fischer-Tropsch process (coal gasification).
The world has oil enough for hundreds of years, so enjoy your Vespa for the fun of riding it, but not to save the planet from a mythical oil shortage.
But all those (except for Brazil maybe) are much more expensive (both economically and environmentally) to process. It's not that the days of oil are passed, it's that the days of
cheap oil is past.
Still kind of shocked that SUV sales have recovered so quickly. From a manufacturers point of view I'd cash in on any demand at all. I bet they're not offering them on lease any more though.
That's what I was getting at. It isn't that there isn't any oil, it's just that cheap oil is becoming scarcer and the supply controls are only going to work against consumers. Just because it may exist in the places you mention doesn't mean the Canadians or Brazilians are going to "give it away".
If we're in full recession swing by winter, you can bet that the first hint of "recovery" will put oil back at $100+ dollars/barrel. It isn't a matter of just how much is left and how long it will last, but how OPEC will control it moving forward to maximize their profits and longevity.
So if Brazil or Canada flood the market with cheap oil, how do you think the Saudis and OPEC will react? All they have to do is cut output of whatever supply they've got left and that stabilizes the price or pulls the price back up. Price fixing is illegal among companies who do business in the USA. Oil cartels and the global market?
Price fixing is JOB #1.
The $$100+/barrel precedent has been set. Now that "they" know what people are willing to pay when the demand exists, that what's they're going to charge. When global demand is down, they'll charge less.
It's a game and we're the suckers. So go ahead, hedge your bets accordingly, but if we ever see "cheap" gas ($2+/US gallon nationally in the USA) it will only be because demand will be so low due to stagnant or worse economic growth. When things "improve", oil/gasoline prices will improve too, but for suppliers, not for consumers.
SUVs? Well, the "Big Three" made out like bandits on those babies. Where are they now?:
Quote:
Some current market values, for perspective
Volkswagen: $141.068bil
Toyota: 105.66bil
Honda: 79.37
Daimler: 33.27
Nissan: 19.20
And, at the other end of the spectrum,
Ford: $5.5bil
Shanghai Automotive Industry: 5.4
General Motors: 3.64
Isuzu Motors: 3.15
Fuji Heavy Industries: 2.78
Dongfeng Motor: 0.75
Yes, a Chinese automaker, SAIC, is now more valuable than GM. Then again, so is Fiat, Suzuki, Renault, Porsche, and a whole host of others. Simply astonishing.
Get your SUVs now, folks. They ain't gonna be growin' em like they used to moving forward.