@jlb avatar
UTC

Molto Verboso
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Molto Verboso
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UTC quote
oopsclunkthud wrote:
JLB wrote:
Brazil has new oil finds that nearly match Saudi Arabia.

Canada has enough oil in it's tar sands to last hundreds of years.

We have 300-400 years of coal, which can be turned into oil via the Fischer-Tropsch process (coal gasification).

The world has oil enough for hundreds of years, so enjoy your Vespa for the fun of riding it, but not to save the planet from a mythical oil shortage.
But all those (except for Brazil maybe) are much more expensive (both economically and environmentally) to process. It's not that the days of oil are passed, it's that the days of cheap oil is past.

Still kind of shocked that SUV sales have recovered so quickly. From a manufacturers point of view I'd cash in on any demand at all. I bet they're not offering them on lease any more though.
That depends on what you mean by "cheap". At over $40 a barrel for oil, coal gasification is profitable, and could last hundreds of years.

Brazil's oil is off the coast, so there is little more environmental impact than there would be in the Gulf of Mexico, which is nearly none.
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UTC

Molto Verboso
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Molto Verboso
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UTC quote
robotribe wrote:
oopsclunkthud wrote:
JLB wrote:
Brazil has new oil finds that nearly match Saudi Arabia.

Canada has enough oil in it's tar sands to last hundreds of years.

We have 300-400 years of coal, which can be turned into oil via the Fischer-Tropsch process (coal gasification).

The world has oil enough for hundreds of years, so enjoy your Vespa for the fun of riding it, but not to save the planet from a mythical oil shortage.
But all those (except for Brazil maybe) are much more expensive (both economically and environmentally) to process. It's not that the days of oil are passed, it's that the days of cheap oil is past.

Still kind of shocked that SUV sales have recovered so quickly. From a manufacturers point of view I'd cash in on any demand at all. I bet they're not offering them on lease any more though.
That's what I was getting at. It isn't that there isn't any oil, it's just that cheap oil is becoming scarcer and the supply controls are only going to work against consumers. Just because it may exist in the places you mention doesn't mean the Canadians or Brazilians are going to "give it away".

If we're in full recession swing by winter, you can bet that the first hint of "recovery" will put oil back at $100+ dollars/barrel. It isn't a matter of just how much is left and how long it will last, but how OPEC will control it moving forward to maximize their profits and longevity.

So if Brazil or Canada flood the market with cheap oil, how do you think the Saudis and OPEC will react? All they have to do is cut output of whatever supply they've got left and that stabilizes the price or pulls the price back up. Price fixing is illegal among companies who do business in the USA. Oil cartels and the global market? Price fixing is JOB #1.

The $$100+/barrel precedent has been set. Now that "they" know what people are willing to pay when the demand exists, that what's they're going to charge. When global demand is down, they'll charge less.

It's a game and we're the suckers. So go ahead, hedge your bets accordingly, but if we ever see "cheap" gas ($2+/US gallon nationally in the USA) it will only be because demand will be so low due to stagnant or worse economic growth. When things "improve", oil/gasoline prices will improve too, but for suppliers, not for consumers.

SUVs? Well, the "Big Three" made out like bandits on those babies. Where are they now?:
Quote:
Some current market values, for perspective

Volkswagen: $141.068bil
Toyota: 105.66bil
Honda: 79.37
Daimler: 33.27
Nissan: 19.20

And, at the other end of the spectrum,

Ford: $5.5bil
Shanghai Automotive Industry: 5.4
General Motors: 3.64
Isuzu Motors: 3.15
Fuji Heavy Industries: 2.78
Dongfeng Motor: 0.75

Yes, a Chinese automaker, SAIC, is now more valuable than GM. Then again, so is Fiat, Suzuki, Renault, Porsche, and a whole host of others. Simply astonishing.
Get your SUVs now, folks. They ain't gonna be growin' em like they used to moving forward.
Actually, OPEC prices oil in US Dollars. For the past few years the dollar has been weak versus the Euro, so the price of oil shot up. Now that the Euro has had a record plunge versus the dollar, cheap gas is here to stay until either:

World economies recover and grow demand.

Or the US Dollar weakens again versus the Euro.

OPEC can try and cut off the supply and drive prices back up, but remember, they don't make money on what they don't sell. The weaker world economy will keep them from cutting supply further.

Bottom line: Cheap gas is back for the next couple of years, so enjoy your Vespa, and your Suburban.
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Molto Verboso
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UTC quote
maybe I am a tree huggin hippy?

I dont own a big piece of gas guzzling crap, thats for sure.

But I do find some of the arguments, er, interesting.

Rather than consume petroleum (and other fossil fuels) like its a never ending resource, just for the sake of consuming, I consider it to be both an ending resource, and a planet killer.

One generation of humans has shit so much crap (from the burning of fossils) into the nest that is planet earth, that the nest is getting pretty full, and either the crap is gonna magically disappear, or humans (me and you) as a species, will end up as some dinosaur being poked in a museum in another 1000000000 years (or worse, as a source of fossil Fuel).

my choice - shit less in the nest in the hope the nest can fix itself a little.


pointless consumerism - helping humanity drown in its own shit!
UTC

Hooked
2007 px200 1968 rally 180 1960 Li150 s2
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UTC quote
Twin01 wrote:
maybe I am a tree huggin hippy?

I dont own a big piece of gas guzzling crap, thats for sure.

But I do find some of the arguments, er, interesting.

Rather than consume petroleum (and other fossil fuels) like its a never ending resource, just for the sake of consuming, I consider it to be both an ending resource, and a planet killer.

One generation of humans has shit so much crap (from the burning of fossils) into the nest that is planet earth, that the nest is getting pretty full, and either the crap is gonna magically disappear, or humans (me and you) as a species, will end up as some dinosaur being poked in a museum in another 1000000000 years (or worse, as a source of fossil Fuel).

my choice - shit less in the nest in the hope the nest can fix itself a little.


pointless consumerism - helping humanity drown in its own shit!
yeah spot on.....great post unfortunately people are getting more materialistic each generation fuelled by corporations influencing people to buy consumer crap they dont need. and also fuelled by the attitude of corporations that ever increasing profits are they ultimate goal and to hell with the consequences such as job losses enviromental affects and unsustainability. capitalism...what a wonderful sysytem
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Molto Verboso
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UTC quote
This sounds like feel-good one upmanship....

There is always somebody who will be doing more than you are, so just do what makes you feel good without casting judgement on others.

This:

External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text

Is far superior to this:
External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text

... to save the planet.

Well guess what?

This:
External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text

Is far superior to this:

External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text

And this:

External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text

Is more environmentally friendly than this:

External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text

You should just buy what you want, ride what you want, or cycle or walk if you want. It's all a matter of degree.

Until China cleans up it's act, your contribution is a grain of sand on the beach.


Beijing from space:
External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text

Beijing on the ground:
External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text
@jlb avatar
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Molto Verboso
2007 Vespa GTS 250ie
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Molto Verboso
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UTC quote
robotribe wrote:
oopsclunkthud wrote:
JLB wrote:
Brazil has new oil finds that nearly match Saudi Arabia.

Canada has enough oil in it's tar sands to last hundreds of years.

We have 300-400 years of coal, which can be turned into oil via the Fischer-Tropsch process (coal gasification).

The world has oil enough for hundreds of years, so enjoy your Vespa for the fun of riding it, but not to save the planet from a mythical oil shortage.
But all those (except for Brazil maybe) are much more expensive (both economically and environmentally) to process. It's not that the days of oil are passed, it's that the days of cheap oil is past.

Still kind of shocked that SUV sales have recovered so quickly. From a manufacturers point of view I'd cash in on any demand at all. I bet they're not offering them on lease any more though.
That's what I was getting at. It isn't that there isn't any oil, it's just that cheap oil is becoming scarcer and the supply controls are only going to work against consumers. Just because it may exist in the places you mention doesn't mean the Canadians or Brazilians are going to "give it away".

If we're in full recession swing by winter, you can bet that the first hint of "recovery" will put oil back at $100+ dollars/barrel. It isn't a matter of just how much is left and how long it will last, but how OPEC will control it moving forward to maximize their profits and longevity.

So if Brazil or Canada flood the market with cheap oil, how do you think the Saudis and OPEC will react? All they have to do is cut output of whatever supply they've got left and that stabilizes the price or pulls the price back up. Price fixing is illegal among companies who do business in the USA. Oil cartels and the global market? Price fixing is JOB #1.

The $$100+/barrel precedent has been set. Now that "they" know what people are willing to pay when the demand exists, that what's they're going to charge. When global demand is down, they'll charge less.

It's a game and we're the suckers. So go ahead, hedge your bets accordingly, but if we ever see "cheap" gas ($2+/US gallon nationally in the USA) it will only be because demand will be so low due to stagnant or worse economic growth. When things "improve", oil/gasoline prices will improve too, but for suppliers, not for consumers.

Btw, to expand on my former post, where I said that oil has been falling because of the rising US Dollar, take a look at this chart of the Dollar versus the Euro:

External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text

Oil prices peaked on a close of around $144 a barrel on July 14th.

Take a look at mid July on that chart, and look what the US Dollar did compared to the Euro since then.

That is why oil prices have fallen.

You will see a small bump if OPEC cuts, but the real move will come as the Euro rebounds as LIBOR rates fall.
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UTC

Molto Verboso
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UTC quote
JLB wrote:
This sounds like feel-good one upmanship....

There is always somebody who will be doing more than you are, so just do what makes you feel good without casting judgement on others.
No casting of judgement on others - just challenging the opinion

You forgot this as a cleaner option to aeroplanes, cars and scooters;

External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text
JLB wrote:
You should just buy what you want, ride what you want, or cycle or walk if you want. It's all a matter of degree.

Until China cleans up it's act, your contribution is a grain of sand on the beach.
This site suggests otherwise - what gives one country the right to pollute more than another?

I think China has a right to grow - as much as I hate them - the West has a responsibility to work with China, and India, to prevent the same stuff-ups it has made.

Its also about everyone doing their bit - using less, buying less useless crap, buying local product and produce, thinking twice before jumping in the car.

I may be a grain of sand, but eventually there will be enough grains of sand who think the same and form a beach.....

A favourite quote of mine is an American Indian saying -
"Treat the earth well:
it was not given to you by your parents,
it was loaned to you by your children.
We do not inherit the Earth from our
Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children."
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UTC

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2005 Genuine Stella 150, 2008 Genuine Buddy, 2013 Piaggio BV 350, 2014 Piaggio Fly 150 3v
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UTC quote
austrALIEN wrote:
...to hell with the consequences such as job losses enviromental affects and unsustainability. capitalism...what a wonderful sysytem
Job losses? My family lived in poverty in Europe for generations and came to US for opportunity. We work hard, start businesses and employ others. Job losses-please. If more would try working hard instead of expecting to be taken care of this would be an even better world. (Oh yeah-we don't pollute either.)
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UTC quote
IrishTim wrote:
austrALIEN wrote:
...to hell with the consequences such as job losses enviromental affects and unsustainability. capitalism...what a wonderful sysytem
Job losses? My family lived in poverty in Europe for generations and came to US for opportunity. We work hard, start businesses and employ others. Job losses-please. If more would try working hard instead of expecting to be taken care of this would be an even better world. (Oh yeah-we don't pollute either.)
On top of that unemployment in the US is about half of what it is in Europe.
@jlb avatar
UTC

Molto Verboso
2007 Vespa GTS 250ie
Joined: UTC
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Molto Verboso
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UTC quote
Twin01 wrote:
JLB wrote:
This sounds like feel-good one upmanship....

There is always somebody who will be doing more than you are, so just do what makes you feel good without casting judgement on others.
No casting of judgement on others - just challenging the opinion

You forgot this as a cleaner option to aeroplanes, cars and scooters;

External inline image provided by member with no explanatory text
JLB wrote:
You should just buy what you want, ride what you want, or cycle or walk if you want. It's all a matter of degree.

Until China cleans up it's act, your contribution is a grain of sand on the beach.
This site suggests otherwise - what gives one country the right to pollute more than another?
We have some of the strictest pollution standards in the world. If we pollute more it's because we have the largest economy and we produce more than other countries.

That's like asking what right Australia has to pollute more than Fiji.
Twin01 wrote:
I think China has a right to grow - as much as I hate them - the West has a responsibility to work with China, and India, to prevent the same stuff-ups it has made.
Why would you give China and India a pass?

Face it... Kyoto is a job killer designed to give the worst polluting third world countries an economic advantage.
Twin01 wrote:
Its also about everyone doing their bit - using less, buying less useless crap, buying local product and produce, thinking twice before jumping in the car.
I don't agree with your premise. You should live your life however you want to live it. If you want to inconvenience yourself while giving a pass to a billion Chinese, go right ahead.

I ride a Vespa nearly every day. I already drive a Honda Accord that is a ULEV. My second car gets 44 mpg. My Suburban gets about 20 mpg, which is nearly as good as most cars....

Somewhere, 100 cows farted and just cancelled out all my good work.
Twin01 wrote:
I may be a grain of sand, but eventually there will be enough grains of sand who think the same and form a beach.....
We had that. It was called "The Dark Ages", and it pretty much sucked.
Twin01 wrote:
A favourite quote of mine is an American Indian saying -
"Treat the earth well:
it was not given to you by your parents,
it was loaned to you by your children.
We do not inherit the Earth from our
Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children."
That Indian was probably talking about Social Security.
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