flordian wrote:
When gas prices were hovering almost 4 dollars per gallon, that's when I made the decision to dump my car and 'scoot' to work. I went to my local Vespa dealer. When I walked thru the door I found myself as the 15th person in line to buy a scooter. That day I bought the last 150 they had. It was a five hour buying experience. When the gas prices began to fall that waiting line diminished quickly. I think those possible scooter buyers went across the street and bought their Ford F150. Now, just a prediction that might offend some of you, but if an anti-nuke war breaks out in the middle east in the near future the price of oil will sky rocket. $4 a gallon will be considered a bargain. And, as before, you'll see lines out the door at your local bike dealership. It's just the way it seems to work here in the USA.
High gas prices certainly ignited the boom in '08 but other conditions are much different now than then: lower wages, huge unemployment numbers, lower savings rates, less spending, etc. across the board. It's also much harder to get financing now.
I think the economic argument for Vespas when gas is high is actually a pretty poor one. Vespanomics is a myth for most people, especially those who, unlike you, aren't actually
replacing a car with a scooter. The economic argument also favors other, less expensive but very reliable scooters. Most people who are looking to save money aren't going to go out and buy the most expensive product the promises this when there are a number of good alternatives.
The other big difference from '08 is the auto industry. There are more good sub-$20K, high MPG cars available now. More companies have hybrids out in a variety of models. Electric options are right around the corner. Neither the high gas prices not the scooter boom of '08 convinced many Americans that it was time to go carless. Should gas prices spike again, I think many will be looking for their savings in car form.
Others may have taken an unfortunate lesson away from the gas prices of '08: The prices are manipulated and they're temporary. OPEC likes to test and push our tolerance. Wait 4 months before selling the Hummer.