@dailyrider28465 avatar
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@ Aviator47, you're probably right about marketing influencing the $x.xx9, but in nearly every state, it is the various fuel tax fractional cent amounts that I believe have introduced the concept.
http://www.api.org/Oil-and-Natural-Gas-Overview/Industry-Economics/~/media/21EBD0B62EBA42B1965EE82EFFB6585D.ashx
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UTC quote
Aviator47 wrote:
I've added 2005 per capita gasoline consumption

1197 -Canada 1.48
216 -Belgium 2.34
1618 - USA 0.99 to 1.20
447 - Greece 2.41
396 - UK 2.20
924 - Australia 1.59

Reminds me of a good joke. What is the difference between a Brit and an American? A Brit thinks 100 miles is a long way, and an American thinks 100 years is a long time.
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Whatever makes you happy
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I still think the price of fuel and the tax component is a sideshow to the bigger picture of our dependance on a dwindling resource.

The UK fuel tankers strike may go ahead in a few weeks if their dispute isn't settled, which will give the UK another sharp shock - in 2000 motorists and riders turned up at forecourts to find 'No Fuel' signs almost everywhere overnight. As then, it'll probably be a few days of pain and then we'll go back to doing exactly what we did before, and forget about panic buying, rationing, price hike profiteering, fighting at forecourts and so on

There is of course some really positive stuff going on in fuel efficiency - 2500-3000 miles to the gallon is a possibility!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-17511399
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BROWN what's sad is that the big oil companies pay off people so that, that technology will never happen or if it does it'll be so expensive, you won't be able to afford it. Some big companies have had it good and aren't going to take a pay cut.
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judy wrote:
BROWN what's sad is that the big oil companies pay off people so that, that technology will never happen or if it does it'll be so expensive, you won't be able to afford it. Some big companies have had it good and aren't going to take a pay cut.
Yes, they can, and they have

The film 'Who Killed The Electric Car?' shows how exactly that happened when a viable electric car was bought into the market 15 years ago - it was quickly withdrawn, and all models minced, thanks to GM. But don't take it from me, watch the movie, it's an education.

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Poor UK government advice starts panic fuel buying and self inflicted shortages, weeks in advance of tanker drivers potential strike threat Wha? emoticon

Nothing like starting the chaos early

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17553696
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Too right, on my way home I passed three petrol stations all with queues on the forecourts... I'm using my scooter as much as possible during this nice weather, my van hasn't been used for a week now and all this for a possible strike!
Graham
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I see that it's started in Northants... DON'T PANIC! I think I'll whizz past the forecourts and give them a little beep!!
http://goo.gl/wYIyv
Graham
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And I see the British Government is making hay while the sun shines - an extra 32 Million pounds goes into the coffers in just a few days thanks to panic buying- Petrol sales have jumped 81% and diesel 43% - a really clever idea by Mr Cameron!
I can see this as just a taste of the future, and it doesn't look good- but which way would you go if you had a choice? a vehicle that runs on Electric or a vehicle that can do something like 1000 per gallon?
I personally would opt for the Hydrogen fuel option, but it is very expensive to produce, and as Mr Beret mentioned earlier, the oil companies are not going to let alternatives to oil spoil the party- for every litre that is extracted from a ever dwindling supply, the more both Governments of the world and the oil companies are going to get... it's just greed, just pure greed.. Crying or Very sad emoticon
Graham
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Oh yes!
Forum member supplied image with no explanatory text
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louswheel wrote:
And I see the British Government is making hay while the sun shines - an extra 32 Million pounds goes into the coffers in just a few days thanks to panic buying- Petrol sales have jumped 81% and diesel 43% - a really clever idea by Mr Cameron!
I'm not one to defend Mr C, but it's not really extra revenue, it's just earlier. The increase will be offset by the lull next week when relatively fewer will be filling up surely?
OP
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UTC quote
Gas prices are spiking again in Toronto,
I guess I can't use regular gas in my GTS 250 eh?

I'm back to work on Monday doing my seasonal job,
I'll have to travel 60 km round trip daily soon.
(My odometer is still broken, Gotta get that fixed soon)

With all the truck rollovers lately on our highways,
I'm thinking that I'll take the non highway route to and from work this year.

Oh well, I love the scenic route anyways, Albeit a bit slower.

@brown_beret7 avatar
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UTC quote
brown_beret7 wrote:
With the additional 3p fuel duty to be added in August 2012, announced this week in the UK Chancellors budget, a litre of diesel will top £1.50. Though as prices are already 3p a litre higher than January, it may well reach this before then without the additional taxation.
I wrote this in an earlier post on 23 March. Whilst riding today I passed a garage showing £1.499 for a litre of diesel. So while I could say I told you so on £1.50 a litre being close, even I didn't expect it to take only a week

It's pretty likely that this has been caused by the 'madness' of appalling government advice after the strike threat, panic buying and profiteering
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DailyRider28465 wrote:
@Partanen - the link you provided shows the 'average' US price as $4.20, or the equivalent of 3.87 litres my local fuel cost. But the Big Mac price varies much by location, as does fuel. Incidentally, the local prices I quoted were for the 'regular' 87 octane fuel we put in or Camry.
I don't know what's the point comparing fuel prices, if we don't know how expensive it is to customer. There is something to compare, if we know how long we have to do our work to get that fuel. Someone have to work 4 hour to get 1 l, other one 20 min.. Big Mac's price follow local prices, at least somehow. I earn euros, moneone earn dollars, other one swedish kronas. It has its influences too.
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Partanen wrote:
DailyRider28465 wrote:
@Partanen - the link you provided shows the 'average' US price as $4.20, or the equivalent of 3.87 litres my local fuel cost. But the Big Mac price varies much by location, as does fuel. Incidentally, the local prices I quoted were for the 'regular' 87 octane fuel we put in or Camry.
I don't know what's the point comparing fuel prices, if we don't know how expensive it is to customer. There is something to compare, if we know how long we have to do our work to get that fuel. Someone have to work 4 hour to get 1 l, other one 20 min.. Big Mac's price follow local prices, at least somehow. I earn euros, moneone earn dollars, other one swedish kronas. It has its influences too.
Just a need to prattle. Without prattle, the internet wouldn't exist.
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As of today, April 1st...and this is not an April Fool's joke...Hawaii has the highest cost per gallon and it gets worst as you look to our neighbor island of Hawaii and Maui.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/Gas_prices_set_record_in_Hawaii.html?id=145414595

Need to keep in in perspective that while we do pay the highest...if circumstances are just right...you may not be expending a whole lot for gas if you live in a area that has alternative means to get around (i.e. bus), live in an area where you can actually walk or ride a bicycle to get things done, or perhaps a retiree (which I am) and no need to drive a lot or you've got pass the breakeven point of fullying owning a scoot and can take advantage of mpg. Specifically I've already opted to use my scoot whenever I need to take the 40+ mile round trip to pick up stuff at the outlying warehouse outlet or feed store.

So...while the cost per galloon or liter is an overall issue...it's what we have as alternative means of transit that can have an effect on our driving habits. Fidelity Investments had a survey done and came up with $5.30 per gallon which folks will alter their driving habits and at ~ $6.00 - $7.00 it will begin to really hurt the economy.
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TB wrote:
Need to keep in in perspective that while we do pay the highest...if circumstances are just right...you may not be expending a whole lot for gas if you live in a area that has alternative means to get around (i.e. bus), live in an area where you can actually walk or ride a bicycle to get things done, or perhaps a retiree (which I am) and no need to drive a lot .......
You have captured the heart of the issue. As I posted above. looking at petrol prices in terms of per capita consumption versus pump price paints a very different picture.

Per capita consumption - country - price per litre in $US

1197 -Canada 1.48
216 -Belgium 2.34
1618 - USA 0.99 to 1.20
447 - Greece 2.41
396 - UK 2.20
924 - Australia 1.59

At $1.20/litre, a family of 4 in the US spends $7766/yr at the per capita rate.
At $2.41/litre, a family of 4 in Greece spends $4309/ yr at the per capita rate.

A $.50/litre increase in pump price raises the annual bill for a Greek family by $894, while the American family's bill goes up by $3236! Much greater price sensitivity.

If Hawaiians consume less petrol per capita than the mainlanders, price sensitivity will be lower.
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But were already feeling the effects and i can't wait until this summer. EVERYTHING we get here uses gas to get here and our electric company happily uses it and loves to add on their taxes-usage fees as well. That's what will get us. Sure we can change our driving habits (i ride a scoot and don't own a car) but that's a drop in the bucket to what's gonna happen sooner rather than later over here. Now for sure things get to places on the mainland by gas but ours costs more. Crying or Very sad emoticon
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Aviator47,
How many calculators have you worn out on this thread?
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Richard H. Lemmon wrote:
Aviator47,
How many calculators have you worn out on this thread?
It's a family curse. The men in my family have always been driven to make numbers meaningful. My classmates in flight school hated computing weight and balance. I just simply did it. My dad and his brothers would hear someone make a statement throwing around numbers, would mash them against reality in their heads and if out of touch with reality, slam dunk the offending person. The thing is, numbers (such as comparing petrol prices internationally) are very often basically abstract until put into context. Might as well compare hat sizes. Thus, I pull out the calculator and try to find that context.
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I certainly appreciate it, even if it takes me a while to understand exactly what I'm reading.
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just gone up 75c to R11,70 litre of unleaded.. i think
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Almost $5 a gallon on the Big Island.
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Come to Mexico! Premium is 10 pesos a liter and it doesn't matter where you buy it. The price is controlled by Pemex the government controlled oil company.

At today's exchange rate that makes it 78 cents a liter, or a little over $3.00 U.S. a gallon.

Unfortunately I will returning to California in another week.
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UTC quote
paid $4.04/gallon yesterday for a fill up.
1 US gallon = 3.78 liters so....
$1.07 per liter

Austin, TX
USA
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The price of oil is now doubling in a little over eight years. The second doubling will occur in less than seven years (the relationship is not linear). This will place oil at about $200/b by 2020 and $400/b by 2027 - 28. $430/b is the maximum theoretical price that the consumer can pay for a barrel of crude. It is the price at which the energy contribution to the end consumer from a unit of oil is no longer sufficient to generate the work (that is, ft-lbf or economic activity) needed to procure the oil. It is the point where the average barrel of crude changes from being an energy source into becoming an energy sink.

Not all fields, of course, have the same ERoEI profile. It is, however, a definable distribution, and when the average field has fallen to a level where the price can no longer be supported, 38% of the world's fields will have an ERoEI that will be too low to justify their continued operation. It will be the point where the higher ERoEI fields can no longer subsidize the lower ERoEI fields. The remaining higher ERoEI fields will soon follow the shut-in of the lower energy fields as they continually dip below that critical point. Going forward from there, few if any, new fields will be able to be brought on online.

The world is now consuming more oil every 4.3 years than it did in totality for the 60 years between 1900 and 1960 - 120.3 billion barrels. Prior to 1960 oil extraction had a very minor impact on world reserves. That is no longer the case. The day when the well runs dry is an expected and predictable phenomenon with calculable and acceptable error margins. Its eventuality is well understood. The impact it will have on society is far less discernible - but certainly, it will be one of the major events of human history.

The Hill's Group

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vision-master wrote:
The day when the well runs dry is an expected and predictable phenomenon
Thanks for posting your extract. I don't need any more convincing personally, but its good to see this spelled out again. In this parallel thread I posted links to some 'predictive films' on what happens as we move towards unaffordable price rises, supply problems and the huge impact of them on everyone. It's not too difficult to imagine, I'm just amazed about how few people seem to get it

New Job, High Gas Prices ='s riding to work now
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Many ppl never get past the blame stage and cling to the drill, baby drill....... Clown emoticon
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vision-master wrote:
The impact it will have on society is far less discernible - but certainly, it will be one of the major events of human history.
Have there been any high level groups discussing this? it seems obvious to me what's going to happen and I'm hoping that someone's got some bright ideas else the future is looking quite depressing. Our SciFi shows us wandering around in star ships yet the most likely future seems to be bicycles, steam engines and horses (that's assuming our neighbours don't eat them (or us) first)
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mike_bike_kite wrote:
vision-master wrote:
The impact it will have on society is far less discernible - but certainly, it will be one of the major events of human history.
Have there been any high level groups discussing this?
Yes, in that international governments have worked on emissions reductions, Kyoto, carbon trading etc, but less so on 'energy security' and Peak Oil IMHO. The communities/movements who have taken peak oil risks and self reliance seriously seem largely to have given up on mainstream politics and are acting directly themselves on local initiatives. e.g. The UK Transition Towns movement http://www.transitionnetwork.org/

Youtube 'Transition Towns' and 'Richard Heinberg' for videos and the same in Amazon for books on this and related topics - the material is considerable.
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mike_bike_kite wrote:
vision-master wrote:
The impact it will have on society is far less discernible - but certainly, it will be one of the major events of human history.
Have there been any high level groups discussing this? it seems obvious to me what's going to happen and I'm hoping that someone's got some bright ideas else the future is looking quite depressing. Our SciFi shows us wandering around in star ships yet the most likely future seems to be bicycles, steam engines and horses (that's assuming our neighbours don't eat them (or us) first)
I think LENR is going to be proven real this year.
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It is a sad $2.20 per litre in Wellington, New Zealand. Better a scooter than a car though!!
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Well they have just hiked up the price of stuff. Did some shopping for a few things at WalMart yesterday and i paid $10 more in total for the same stuff i got 2 weeks ago. Wha? emoticon
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$1.018 per liter as of yesterday but there really isn't a need to worry about running out of oil during our lifetime or that of our children. It will get more expensive because while there is plenty of oil out there there is not a lot of cheap oil out there.

My company does portfolio and risk management tools for the oil and gas industry so I'm pretty confident of statement. Biggest factors in the current price of oil are political in terms of governments who have made it a policy to discourage the use of fossil fuels for energy. Those gas lines and protests in the UK mentioned earlier in the thread were in large part because oil was being diverted to the US where wholesale prices were actually higher than in the UK. The difference at the pump has to do more with taxes. Last time we rented a car in the UK and had our non-UK/EU citizen gasoline taxes rebated returned 48% of what we had paid for gas as our tax rebate. Currently according to the Daily Mail 58% of the price of fuel in the UK is tax http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2107374/Fuel-tax-British-motorists-pay-60-duty-VAT-petrol.html

"The mid-January price for diesel in the UK was 141.3p a litre. But without tax and duties, it would be only 59.8p. Unleaded petrol cost 132.9p, although without tax and duties it would be a much more manageable 52.8p. Even since the analysis was completed, pump prices have continued to soar."
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"But without tax and duties, it would be only 59.8p. Unleaded petrol cost 132.9p, although without tax and duties it would be a much more manageable 52.8p."

Which completely ignores the policy decision made decades ago that fuel tax would be applied to discourage consumption. While one cannot make a 100% cause and effect relationship of tax and consumption, the Brits consume 75% less gasoline per capita, while operating only 35% fewer vehicles per capita (excluding PTWs). Surely the tax is having a positive effect in reducing consumption.

Katie bar the door should India and China, currently consuming an annual 10 and 44 litres per capita, respectively, start approaching just 80 l/capita, as that will equal the demand in total liters of the United States.
cdwise wrote:
It will get more expensive because while there is plenty of oil out there there is not a lot of cheap oil out there.
The oil and gas industry goes to great pains to place the cause of increasing oil prices on a "supply and demand" issue. It is not cheap because the demand is increasing faster than the supply. As demand increases, the definition of "plenty" get a bit slippery, wouldn't you think? The current demand resulting in today's pump prices is based on 3 billion inhabitants of two emerging countries consuming very little petrol. It's not just the videos of Chinese driver's unsafe practices that should have people cringing. Excluding PTWs, they currently operate about only 0.04 vehicles per capita. The US operates 0.8 (yes, almost one vehicle for every man, woman and child). Lots of room for China to suck the wells harder and harder. The higher the suck factor, the higher the demand, the higher the price.
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cdwise wrote:
but there really isn't a need to worry about running out of oil during our lifetime or that of our children ... My company does portfolio and risk management tools for the oil and gas industry so I'm pretty confident of statement
It frightens me a little that you work in the industry and still believe that. I just did some quick googling: Which means we have 46 years left before the last drop is mined at current usage rates. Sadly there are some huge factors which make this time period very optimistic:
    *Our usage keeps going up year on year
    *China and India will soon demand the same usage of oil as the rest of us
    *Remaining oil gets more and more expensive to extract
    *We won't be able to afford it long before it runs out
I'm not in the industry at all but my guess is that in 20 years time the world will be a very uncomfortable place to be.
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@aviator47 avatar
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mike_bike_kite wrote:
*China and India will soon demand the same usage of oil as the rest of us.
While a student at the Naval War College (1992), we were put through an exercise in the strategic geo-politics of oil. The task was for each of the 5 study groups in our section to identify a petroleum specific scenario for which the use of military force was not a viable option. (That's right, even the military know that blowing things up and killing people is not a universal answer). Each study group would then make a presentation to to the whole section, as the scenario had come to pass, and we were briefing the Administration as to why military force was not viable. The only departure from "formal protocol" was that it was commonplace to assign a humorous title to a study groups presentation

Four study groups presented scenarios where supply was disrupted - the typical concern of the strategic planner. The fifth study group made a presentation they called "The Honda Cub Doomsday Scenario". What they did was project the economic growth of China over the next 30 years (which they seriously under estimated), and computed the increased demand for petroleum products just for the motorbikes that an increasing employed population could afford. Just looking at 4 litres per week for each person newly able to afford the equivalent of a Honda Cub becomes staggering when you apply that to a population of 2 billion people that are moving from agriculture to manufacturing. Every increment of 1/2 of 1% of the population that can newly afford a "Cub" means a 2 billion litre annual increase in demand for gasoline. And that's just the "Cub" contribution to petroleum demand. So it is not only supply disruptions that should worry policy makers, but demand, both total and by country.

The point they were making is that should China become a major economic player (which they have), they can end up in a position to bid up the price of oil, based upon the increase in demand they alone generate. Producers of oil would be hard pressed to sell to the low bidder, as cdwise illustrates in the supplies diverted from the UK to higher paying American markets. It really doesn't matter what the supplies may be, it's the demand, coupled with a willingness to pay that will determine where the supplies go. The prices are not going up because of the finite supply in the ground, but because of the increasing demand worldwide.
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cdwise wrote:
$1.018 per liter as of yesterday but there really isn't a need to worry about running out of oil during our lifetime or that of our children. It will get more expensive because while there is plenty of oil out there there is not a lot of cheap oil out there.

My company does portfolio and risk management tools for the oil and gas industry so I'm pretty confident of statement. Biggest factors in the current price of oil are political in terms of governments who have made it a policy to discourage the use of fossil fuels for energy. Those gas lines and protests in the UK mentioned earlier in the thread were in large part because oil was being diverted to the US where wholesale prices were actually higher than in the UK. The difference at the pump has to do more with taxes. Last time we rented a car in the UK and had our non-UK/EU citizen gasoline taxes rebated returned 48% of what we had paid for gas as our tax rebate. Currently according to the Daily Mail 58% of the price of fuel in the UK is tax http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2107374/Fuel-tax-British-motorists-pay-60-duty-VAT-petrol.html

"The mid-January price for diesel in the UK was 141.3p a litre. But without tax and duties, it would be only 59.8p. Unleaded petrol cost 132.9p, although without tax and duties it would be a much more manageable 52.8p. Even since the analysis was completed, pump prices have continued to soar."
You need to understand ERoEI and production rates...... running OUT of oil is a silly statement. World demand - 85 million b/d and growing (not sustainable).
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Molto Verboso
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Molto Verboso
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Locally at Safeway store, 7 Apr !2, US$4.37/ U.S. gal.(3.78 Lt.)= US$1.156/Lt.
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